Rating History
Dissemination Date Long-Term Rating Short-Term Rating Outlook Action Rating Watch
19-Sep-25 A- A2 Stable Maintain -
20-Sep-24 A- A2 Stable Maintain -
22-Sep-23 A- A2 Stable Maintain -
23-Sep-22 A- A2 Stable Maintain -
24-Sep-21 A- A2 Stable Maintain -
About the Entity

NCML was incorporated in 1967 as a Public Limited Company, with 90.9% shareholding vested with the sponsoring family. The Company has a ten-member board, consisting of five non-executive directors, two executive directors, and three independent directors. Mr. Shahzada Ellahi Shaikh serves as the Chairman of the Board. The management team is headed by the CEO, Mr. Amin Ellahi, who is well-versed in the textile business, providing the requisite acumen.

Rating Rationale

Nagina Cotton Mills Limited (“NCML” or “the Company”) is part of the prominent group – Nagina Group (“the Group”), which is one of the oldest medium-sized textile groups in Pakistan. The Group includes six private limited Companies and three publicly listed Companies, including NCML and Ellcot Spinning Mills Limited (ESML) in spinning, as well as Prosperity Weaving Mills Limited (PWLM) in weaving. NCML is considered the flagship Company catering mainly to the export segment. The ratings derive comfort from the financial strength of the sponsor's group. The Company’s principal activity is the manufacturing and sale of yarn, with a production capacity of 62,508 Spindles, operating at optimum utilization with state-of-the-art spinning machinery capable of producing high-quality carded and combed cotton, core-spun, and blended yarn for knitting and weaving. In FY25, there has been a prominent strategic shift toward local markets, driven by competitive domestic average price rates. The sales mix for 9MFY25 stood at 81.6% local sales, compared to 45.4% in FY24, while export sales accounted for 18.4%, down from 54.6% in FY24. NCML’s total energy requirement stands at 19.2MW, mainly met by gas generators (66.3%) and the remaining through HESCO (27.0%), furnace oil (0.92%), and solar power (5.8%). The Company intends to rely mainly on HESCO for energy needs during the winter, given the increase in winter gas prices. Alongside, the Company has undertaken renewable energy initiatives aimed at creating a cushion in its cost structure by optimizing energy expenses. In this regard, NCML plans to install a 1.1MW solar power plant over the next six months, enhancing the Company’s cumulative solar capacity to 3.6MW. The Company's topline marginally declined to PKR 15.4bln in 9MFY25 from PKR 15.6bln in 9MFY24, primarily due to a strategic shift from 20/s to 18/s yarn count (coarser yarn) bearing a lower per kg product price. Despite the dip in revenue, the net margins improved, resulting in a bottom line of PKR 76mln (9MFY24: PKR 70mln), buffered through non-operating income and diminished finance costs. Additionally, as per management’s representation, NCML is planning to add six combers to its facility, which is expected to boost the net margin by 1.5%. The Company's financial risk profile is considered moderate, with aptly managed working capital through optimized inventory levels providing a cushion in short-term trade leverage. While the Company has a highly leveraged capital structure dominated by long-term conventional borrowings, the coverages and cash flows are deemed sufficient.

Key Rating Drivers

The ratings are dependent on the Company’s ability to increase business margins through operational efficiencies and product quality. The sustainability of cash flows and coverages at a comfortable level remains critical for the ratings. The adherence to the debt matrix at an optimal level is a prerequisite for the assigned rating.

Profile
Legal Structure

Nagina Cotton Mills Limited ("NCML" or "the Company") was incorporated in 1967 under the Companies Ordinance, 1984 (repealed with the enactment of the Companies Act, 2017) as a public limited company.


Background

Mr. Enam Shaikh Ellahi (late) laid the foundation of Nagina Group ("the Group") with the incorporation of the Company in 1967. Since then, NCML has emerged as the flagship company of the Group. Over the years, the Group has expanded its operations from a single spinning company into multiple spinning entities, including a weaving company.


Operations

NCML is engaged in the production and sale of high-quality carded and combed cotton, core-spun and blended yarn for knitting and weaving. The Company operates 62,508 spindles with a yarn production capacity of approximately 24 million kgs, based on 18/s count (coarse) yarn. The Company’s total energy requirement stands at 19.2MW, which is mainly met through gas generators (66.3%), while the remainder is supplied by HESCO (27.0%), furnace oil (0.92%) and solar power (5.8%). NCML has already installed a 2.5MW solar power plant and is in the process of installing an additional 1.1MW. The Company’s manufacturing facility is located in Kotri Industrial Trading Estate, Sindh.


Ownership
Ownership Structure

NCML is majority owned (~90.88%) by Nagina Group, through group companies (16.37%) and sponsoring individuals (74.52%), mainly Mr. Shaukat Ellahi Shaikh (17.47%), Mr. Shahzada Ellahi Shaikh (17.26%) and Mr. Shafqat Ellahi Shaikh (17.26%). The remaining stake of the Company rests with financial institutions (~0.08%) and the general public (~9.04%).


Stability

The considerable positions in the Nagina Group are held by the Ellahi Family. The Company's ownership structure remains stable and unchanged. The Group has a structured line of succession, however, the transfer of ownership to the next generation is yet to be realized.


Business Acumen

The Ellahi family, operating under the Nagina Group for over five decades, has established a long-standing and successful track record in the textile sector. The Group, as one of Pakistan's oldest medium-sized textile houses, demonstrates a deep understanding of industry dynamics and an ability to navigate numerous economic cycles. The long term tenure, allows the Company to develop significant expertise in spinning and weaving sectors, and to successfully implement capacity expansion, despite the industry's highly competitive nature.


Financial Strength

Nagina Group comprises three listed public limited companies, namely; i) Ellcot Spinning Mills Limited (ESML), ii) Prosperity Weaving Mills Limited (PWML) and iii) Nagina Cotton Mills Limited and six private limited companies i.e., i) Monell (Pvt.) Limited, ii) Icaro (Pvt.) Limited, iii) Haroon Omer (Pvt.) Limited, iv) Ellahi International (Pvt.) Limited, v) ARH (Pvt.) Limited and vi) Pacific Industries (Pvt.) Limited. The Group's strenght provides comfort in case any future obligation may arise.


Governance
Board Structure

NCML's board constitutes ten members out of which five are non-executive, two occupy executive roles – including the CEO, and three directors are independent.


Members’ Profile

Mr. Shahzada Ellahi Shaikh, the Chairman, possesses 48 years of experience in the textile industry and holds a bachelor’s degree in Economics and International Relations. Among the other board members, Mr. Shafqat Ellahi Shaikh has 43 years of industry-specific experience and holds a BA in Economics and Religion from Columbia University. Mr. Shaukat Ellahi Shaikh has 46 years of overall experience in the textile industry and holds a bachelor’s degree in Economics and Political Science.


Board Effectiveness

Three committees: Audit, Executive, and Human Resource & Remuneration, are in place to assist the board in relevant matters and ensure proper oversight. During every quarter of FY25, board meetings were held to discuss current Company performance and updates on projected targets. The meeting minutes are documented properly. The Sponsors play an active role and provide guidance to the management in the Company's operations.


Financial Transparency

M/s. Yousuf Adil, Chartered Accountants, serve as the external auditors of the Company. The firm is listed in the A category on the State Bank of Pakistan's panel of auditors and has expressed an unqualified opinion on the financial statements of the Company for FY24..


Management
Organizational Structure

The top-tier management positions of the operating companies within the Nagina Group (NCML, ESML and PWML) are held by the Ellahi family. The management's control vests with the Ellahi family members, with a defined reporting line to ensure operational excellence. The Company's organizational structure is broadly divided into seven functional departments: (i) marketing, (ii) finance, (iii) accounts, (iv) administration and corporate, (v) commercial (fixed asset procurement), (vi) export and (vii) internal audit.


Management Team

The management team is led by Mr. Amin Ellahi (CEO), who holds a graduate degree and possesses a strong business acumen and a deep understanding of the textile industry, supplemented by a team of seasoned professionals. Mr. Shaukat Ellahi, an executive director, associated with NCML since its inception, has a strong business acumen in the textile business. Mr. Tariq Zafar Bajwa is the Chief Financial Officer and is associated with NCML since past 23 years.



Effectiveness

The management meetings are held on a daily basis with follow-up points to resolve or proactively address operational issues, if any, eventually ensuring a smooth flow of operations. The Company’s MIS can be classified into three categories on the basis of reporting periodicity – daily, weekly and monthly.


MIS

The Company has upgraded its system from FOXPRO technology to Oracle ERP solution. It enables the users to efficiently record loom-wise packed fabric production and supports BAM-wise recording of warping, sizing, loom and folding processes. The ERP solution helps to streamline core business operations, enhance financial management and provide real-time insights for more informed decision-making.


Control Environment

NCML is accredited with multiple certifications for compliance and quality assurance, namely; ISO 9001:2008, Standard 100 by OEKOTEX, Global Organic Textile Standards (GOTS), Organic Content Standard, Organic Content Standard 100 and Organic Content Standard Blended.


Business Risk
Industry Dynamics

During MY25, approximately 24.4mln MT of cotton was produced globally, compared to about 24.2 million MT in MY24. Throughout the year, low cotton production was observed in India and Pakistan. However, this was partly offset by increases in cotton production in China, the United States, and Brazil by roughly 9.7%, 19.4%, and 15.7%, respectively. China remains the largest producer and consumer of cotton worldwide (MY21-25). Pakistan's cotton output declined by approximately 30.7%, due to reduced cultivation area and a surge in duty-free imports of cotton and yarn, which disrupted domestic markets. Conversely, cotton imports increased by around 234.0% YoY during the same period to satisfy domestic demand (FY24: roughly 70.0% YoY decline). Cotton arrivals for FY24-25 totaled to about 5.5mln bales. The target for cotton production in FY26 is set at approximately 10.2mln bales.


The sector's rising dependence on imported cotton poses a supply-side risk. During the FY25 ended, imports accounted for approximately 35% of the cotton supply (~11% in FY24), adding about USD 1.27bln (USD 448mln in FY24) to the country's import bill. Textile exports reached USD 17.9bln in FY25, a modest rise from USD 16.7bln the previous year, reflecting a 7.2% year-over-year growth. The largest contribution came from the composite and garments segment, at USD 14bln, which included the weaving segment at USD 1.8bln and the spinning segment at USD 0.7bln. The production of cotton cloth in FY25 declined by approximately 0.7% year over year, reaching around 877.1mln square meters. During FY25, about 25.3% of the cotton cloth produced was exported (compared to roughly 27.2% in FY24), with the rest used for the domestic market. The country's fabric exports fell by approximately 4.4% on YoY basis in FY25 (FY24: up about 5.8% on YoY basis), with approximately 23.4% of Pakistan's cotton cloth exports going to Bangladesh (compared to about 19.9% in FY24), followed by the USA with about 8.1% of cotton cloth exports (approximately 7.8% in FY24).


In FY25, the transition from the final tax regime to the normal tax regime is expected to affect the profitability of export-oriented units, with a 29% tax on profits and a super tax of up to 10%. The recent removal of GST exemption (Finance Bill, 2025) on textile inputs for exporters registered under the Export Facilitation Scheme (EFS) will offer tax protection and create a level playing field for domestic cotton and yarn producers. Currently, international cotton prices are higher than the price of locally produced cotton. The gap has widened to approximately 9.8 cents per pound (as of July 18, 2025), resulting in an average increase of about USD 36.8 per bale of imported cotton. A greater reliance on imported cotton could lead to higher raw material costs, ultimately impacting yarn prices and profit margins for the sector. Conversely, energy and finance costs are expected to stay within a range, given the projected reduction in interest rates and the absence of any major energy tariff increases.


While the sector continues to demonstrate resilience on the export front, the margin outlook for FY26 appears challenging. Upstream segments such as spinning face greater downside risk from raw material inflation, while vertically integrated composite units with stronger export linkages are better positioned to defend profitability. Overall, the sector hinges on the ability to secure a stable cotton supply chain and navigate upcoming fiscal adjustments. Without structural improvement in domestic cotton production, earnings volatility is likely to persist.


Relative Position

The Nagina Group boasts a long operating history in Pakistan's local spinning industry. Although NCML's share of the spinning industry is minimal on a standalone basis, the Group's consolidated spinning capacity enhances the Company's market position.


Revenues

During 9MFY25, the Company reported a revenue of PKR 15,430mln, reflecting a marginal decline from PKR 15,641mln in 9MFY24. This decrease was primarily attributable to the challenging market conditions, including the influx of duty-free and low-taxed imported yarn under the EFS scheme and a reduction in the domestic cotton crop. The Company continues to optimize its sales mix between local and international markets in line with prevailing price dynamics to sustain profitability.


Margins

During 9MFY25, the Company’s gross margins declined to 7.4% (FY24: 7.9%, 9MFY24: 8.1%) on account of yarn's demand shrinkage. This translated into a decline in operating margins to 4.6% (FY24: 5.3%, 9MFY24: 5.4%). However, finance cost decreased to PKR 532mln during the 9MFY25 (FY24: PKR 851mln, 9MFY24: PKR 649mln), which supported the net profit margins, which increased to 0.5% (9MFY24: 0.4%).


Sustainability

The Company's management is focused on optimizing the sales mix, pursuing product differentiation and consistently identifying cost-reduction opportunities to enhance profitability and drive market growth. However, the international market outlook remains uncertain, characterized by a rising cost structure due to higher energy prices, increased tax burden and political instability. In anticipation, NCML is installing a further 1.1MW solar power project at its mills. This initiative provides cheaper green energy, reducing cost structure while supporting environmental sustainability.


Financial Risk
Working capital

The Company fulfills its working capital requirement through a mix of internal cash flows and short-term borrowings. STB increased significantly at the end of 9MFY25 to PKR 1,806mln (FY24: PKR 688mln). The Company's net working capital cycle stretched to 86days (FY24: 81days), mainly on account of elevated trade receivable days (9MFY25: 49days, FY24: 32days). Trade assets of the Company increased to PKR 7,583mln (FY24: PKR 5,258mln) driven by higher advances to suppliers (9MFY25: PKR 2,224mln; FY24: PKR 438mln).


Coverages

During 9MFY25, the Company experienced a decrease in operating cash flows to PKR 931mln (9MFY24: PKR 1,154mln; FY24: PKR 1,464mln) alonhg with a decline in finance costs (9MFY25: PKR 532mln; FY24: PKR 851mln). Interest coverages remained unchanged due to proportionate decrease in FCFO (9MFY25: 1.8x; FY24: 1.8x). Likewise, debt coverage decreased (9MFY25: 0.9x; FY24: 1.1x).


Capitalization

At end Mar25, the Company's leverage increased to 59.1% (FY24: 56.1%) as the total borrowings elevated to PKR 6,903mln (FY24: PKR 6,048mln). Out of the total borrowings, short-term debt constituted 26.2%. The equity base of the company enhanced to PKR, 4,779mln (FY24: PKR 4,728mln).


 
 

Sep-25

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Mar-25
9M
Jun-24
12M
Jun-23
12M
Jun-22
12M
A. BALANCE SHEET
1. Non-Current Assets 5,712 5,966 6,214 4,230
2. Investments 153 1,168 230 1,392
3. Related Party Exposure 0 0 0 0
4. Current Assets 8,056 5,596 6,144 4,549
a. Inventories 2,246 2,346 3,506 2,985
b. Trade Receivables 3,083 2,424 1,207 974
5. Total Assets 13,921 12,730 12,589 10,172
6. Current Liabilities 1,952 1,713 1,686 1,448
a. Trade Payables 204 174 190 165
7. Borrowings 6,903 6,048 6,044 4,274
8. Related Party Exposure 0 0 0 0
9. Non-Current Liabilities 286 241 192 143
10. Net Assets 4,779 4,728 4,667 4,308
11. Shareholders' Equity 4,779 4,728 4,667 4,308
B. INCOME STATEMENT
1. Sales 15,430 20,448 12,819 11,236
a. Cost of Good Sold (14,286) (18,834) (11,479) (8,728)
2. Gross Profit 1,144 1,614 1,340 2,508
a. Operating Expenses (434) (534) (432) (382)
3. Operating Profit 710 1,079 907 2,126
a. Non Operating Income or (Expense) 126 82 156 (59)
4. Profit or (Loss) before Interest and Tax 836 1,162 1,063 2,067
a. Total Finance Cost (532) (851) (259) (241)
b. Taxation (228) (234) (214) (14)
6. Net Income Or (Loss) 76 77 590 1,813
C. CASH FLOW STATEMENT
a. Free Cash Flows from Operations (FCFO) 931 1,464 1,054 2,170
b. Net Cash from Operating Activities before Working Capital Changes 351 620 898 1,950
c. Changes in Working Capital (2,189) 434 (1,303) (1,783)
1. Net Cash provided by Operating Activities (1,838) 1,055 (404) 168
2. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Investing Activities 969 (983) (1,022) (2,084)
3. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Financing Activities (605) 599 1,589 1,795
4. Net Cash generated or (Used) during the period (1,473) 670 163 (122)
D. RATIO ANALYSIS
1. Performance
a. Sales Growth (for the period) 0.6% 59.5% 14.1% 56.4%
b. Gross Profit Margin 7.4% 7.9% 10.5% 22.3%
c. Net Profit Margin 0.5% 0.4% 4.6% 16.1%
d. Cash Conversion Efficiency (FCFO adjusted for Working Capital/Sales) -8.2% 9.3% -1.9% 3.5%
e. Return on Equity [ Net Profit Margin * Asset Turnover * (Total Assets/Shareholders' Equity )] 2.1% 1.6% 13.1% 52.7%
2. Working Capital Management
a. Gross Working Capital (Average Days) 90 85 123 97
b. Net Working Capital (Average Days) 86 81 118 94
c. Current Ratio (Current Assets / Current Liabilities) 4.1 3.3 3.6 3.1
3. Coverages
a. EBITDA / Finance Cost 2.3 2.1 5.5 10.6
b. FCFO / Finance Cost+CMLTB+Excess STB 0.9 1.1 1.7 3.8
c. Debt Payback (Total Borrowings+Excess STB) / (FCFO-Finance Cost) 9.3 8.4 6.2 1.8
4. Capital Structure
a. Total Borrowings / (Total Borrowings+Shareholders' Equity) 59.1% 56.1% 56.4% 49.8%
b. Interest or Markup Payable (Days) 54.3 66.3 224.2 66.5
c. Entity Average Borrowing Rate 10.1% 12.1% 4.6% 5.6%

Sep-25

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Sep-25

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Sep-25

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