Rating History
Dissemination Date Long-Term Rating Short-Term Rating Outlook Action Rating Watch
06-Apr-26 AA A1+ Stable Maintain -
08-Apr-25 AA A1+ Stable Maintain -
08-Apr-24 AA A1+ Stable Maintain -
11-Apr-23 AA A1+ Stable Maintain -
11-Apr-22 AA A1+ Stable Upgrade -
About the Entity

Lucky Electric Power Company Limited was incorporated in Pakistan on June 13, 2014, as a public unlisted company and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Lucky Cement Limited. The Company operates a 1x660MW local coal-fired supercritical power plant at Port Qasim, Karachi, on a Build-Own-Operate (BOO) basis. The plant achieved Commercial Operation Date (COD) on March 21, 2022, and sells electricity to CPPA-G under a 30-year Power Purchase Agreement. The Board is chaired by Mr. Muhammad Ali Tabba, with Mr. Ruhail Muhammad serving as Chief Executive Officer.

Rating Rationale

Lucky Electric Power Company Limited (LEPCL or the Company) operates a 660MW supercritical coal-fired power plant at Port Qasim, Karachi, under a 30-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with CPPA-G. The ratings are underpinned by the Company’s strategic importance, arising from its inclusion in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and reinforced by its ability to operate on local coal. The assigned ratings also draw comfort from the Company’s strong sponsorship profile, as it is wholly owned by Lucky Cement Limited, a part of the Yunus Brothers Group (YBG)—one of Pakistan’s most diversified conglomerates with an established presence across cement, textiles, real estate, power, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, food, and automotive sectors. The Company benefits from explicit financial support from YBG, providing stability and enhancing its ability to manage liquidity pressures. The PPA structure provides revenue stability through capacity payments and coverage of fuel costs, even under lower dispatch scenarios, subject to the plant maintaining the required availability of 85%. During FY25, the plant generated 1,018.68 GWh of electricity while maintaining availability in line with benchmark levels. Operational risks are mitigated through a 7-year O&M agreement with Harbin Electric International Co., Ltd. Fuel supply is supported by coal agreements with SECMC (Thar coal), under an MoU to utilize Thar coal when available, while the plant currently operates on imported coal sourced from Indonesia through multiple suppliers. The Company has achieved full Shariah compliance, with the SECP issuing a Shariah Compliance Certificate on March 3, 2025. Liquidity management remains impacted by persistent circular debt in the power sector, as reflected in trade receivables of PKR 19,386 million as of June 30, 2025. The Company relies on internal cash generation and short-term borrowings to meet its working capital requirements. Additionally, it has issued multiple Sukuks to bridge these working capital gaps. The capital structure is gradually improving, supported by sustained profitability and the ongoing repayment of project debt. Importantly, no renegotiations have been initiated with respect to CPEC power projects under the ongoing power sector reforms; therefore, the original terms of the PPA and tariff remain intact, with no changes in the tariff structure.

Key Rating Drivers

Sustained operational performance, continued adherence to availability benchmarks, and disciplined financial management remain critical to maintaining the Company's credit profile. A stable capacity-based payment structure provides additional comfort. While the Company remains well-positioned within its contractual framework, continued stability in the regulatory environment will further support the ratings.

Profile
Plant

Lucky Electric Power Company Limited ("the Company" or "Lucky Electric") has successfully commissioned a 1x660MW (gross) local coal-fired supercritical power plant at Port Qasim, Karachi, Sindh. The project, developed on a Build-Own-Operate (“BOO”) basis, was established at a total cost of USD 895 million, financed with a debt-to-equity ratio of 75:25. In a significant development, the Company has achieved full Shariah compliance by meeting all necessary requirements. Consequently, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) issued the Shariah Compliance Certificate to the Company on March 3, 2025.


Tariff

The Company's tariff structure comprises two primary components: Capacity Payments and Energy Payments. Energy Payments are further broken down into variable costs and fixed fuel costs. A key feature of the tariff agreement ensures revenue stability: if the plant achieves its contracted availability, the Company is entitled to receive both Capacity Payments and fixed fuel costs, even in the absence of a purchase order from CPPA-G. The tariff control period is set for a duration of 30 years, providing long-term revenue visibility.


Return on Project

The Company's financial framework, as approved by NEPRA, includes an agreed-upon Return on Equity (ROE) expressed in PKR/kWh. This return is set at 29.5% for operations using local coal and 27.2% for operations utilizing imported coal.


Ownership
Ownership Structure

Lucky Cement Limited owns 100% shareholding of Lucky Electric, incorporated in Pakistan on June 13, 2014, as a public unlisted company. The registered office of the Company is situated at 6-A, Muhammad Ali Housing Society, Karachi, Sindh.


Stability

Lucky Electric Power Company Limited (LEPCL) maintains a strong and stable position under the ownership of the Yunus Brothers Group (YBG), one of Pakistan's most established and diversified conglomerates. As a subsidiary of Lucky Cement Limited, LEPCL holds a strategic position within the group, benefiting from its financial strength, operational expertise, and long-term commitment to the energy sector. The sponsor has a proven track record of successful operations across multiple industries, ensuring sustained support and strategic oversight. Furthermore, there is no intent to dilute the shareholding in the Company, reaffirming LEPCL's long-term stability and growth trajectory.


Business Acumen

Yunus Brothers Group (YBG) exhibits strong business acumen through its diverse portfolio in cement, textiles, real estate, power, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, food, and automotive. With a proven track record of strategic investments and financial strength, YBG drives sustainable growth across industries. Lucky Electric Power Company benefits from this solid foundation, leveraging the Group's expertise, operational excellence, and long-term vision.


Financial Strength

Lucky Electric Power Company benefits from strong financial stability, backed by its parent company, Lucky Cement Limited, a market leader in Pakistan's industrial sector. This strong financial foundation ensures LEPCL's sustainable operations, long-term growth, and resilience in the power industry. Additionally, the explicit financial support from the Yunus Brothers Group (YBG) further strengthens LEPCL's position, as the sponsors have well-diversified and profitable businesses across multiple industries.


Governance
Board Structure

The Board of Directors is primarily dominated by the sponsor's representatives. The Board currently comprises eight members, including the Chief Executive Officer. Out of these, three members serve as Independent Directors, ensuring a level of independent oversight within the governance framework.


Members’ Profile

Mr. Muhammad Ali Tabba, the Chairman, has been associated with the Group in different capacities for nearly three decades and currently chairs the Board with his visionary leadership and vast experience. All Board members are highly qualified and competent, ensuring effective leadership and governance. The Board currently comprises eight members, including the Chief Executive Officer, with three members serving as Independent Directors to provide independent oversight within the governance framework.


Board Effectiveness

The Board members meet on a quarterly basis or conduct regular discussions on a need basis. The Chairman of the Board exercises close oversight over the Company's affairs, ensuring effective governance. Additionally, a Board Audit Committee is in place to oversee financial reporting and internal controls. The Board remains actively engaged in providing strategic direction and guidance to the Company's management.


Financial Transparency

A.F. Ferguson & CO., Chartered Accountants, is the external auditor of the Company. They have expressed an unqualified opinion on the Company’s financial statements at end-Jun-25


Management
Organizational Structure

Lucky Electric's management team comprises qualified professionals in areas such as technical, commercial, and legal specialists, with the capability to construct, develop, operate, finance, and maintain the project. The Company has a well-defined organizational structure, with the CEO reporting directly to the Board.


Management Team

Mr. Ruhail Muhammad, the Chief Executive Officer, holds an MBA and is a CFA charterholder. Mr. Ruhail carries vast experience in leading various corporate organizations and also serves on the boards of several renowned corporate entities. An experienced team of professionals supports him, including Mr. Naeem Kasbati, FCA, FCMA, CPA, as Executive Director & CFO, and Engineer Intisar ul Haq Haqqi as Executive Director – Technical.


Effectiveness

Over the years since its incorporation, Lucky Electric Power Company's management has played a pivotal role in driving the organization's growth through strategic decision-making and operational excellence. By achieving key project milestones in a timely and efficient manner, the management has demonstrated strong leadership, effective resource utilization, and a commitment to continuous improvement, ensuring the Company's long-term success and sustainability.


Control Environment

Lucky Electric Power Company upholds a strong control environment by integrating advanced IT solutions, well-structured governance practices, and robust risk management frameworks. With a well-integrated and reliable IT infrastructure, the Company enhances operational efficiency, ensures regulatory compliance, and maintains transparency across its business functions, contributing to long-term sustainability and excellence.


Operational Risk
Power Purchase Agreement

The electricity generated is sold to the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA-G) under a 30-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA). The Revised Commercial Operation Date (RCOD) as per the PPA was March 1, 2021. However, the Company achieved Commercial Operation Date (COD) on March 21, 2022, owing to the global pandemic of Novel Coronavirus.


Operation and Maintenance

The Company has entered into a 7-year Operation & Maintenance (O&M) contract with M/s Harbin Electric International Co., Ltd. - P.R. China (HEI), effective from March 2023. The project's revenues and cash flows are primarily dependent on maintaining the plant's operational availability and capacity factors at adequate levels.


Resource Risk

Lucky Electric's Coal Supply Agreement (CSA) is with SECMC, which is expanding its coal mine in Thar Block-II to 13.1 million tons per annum in three phases. The plant is currently running on imported coal from Indonesia due to the unavailability of Thar coal.


Insurance Cover

Lucky Electric has obtained four types of insurance to cover its various types of risks.


Performance Risk
Industry Dynamics

Total electricity generated in the country during FY25 amounted to 127,160 GWh. This is a decline from FY24's 138,029 GWh (and FY23's 154,056 GWh). The decline in generation/consumption is attributed to reduced economic activity, a slowdown in industrial and commercial operations, high electricity tariffs impacting household and overall patterns, increased reliance on off-grid solar solutions (especially rooftop/net metering), energy conservation measures, and weak industrial demand. As of December 31, 2025 (end of 1HFY26), Pakistan's total installed power generation capacity in the national grid stood at approximately 46,605 MW.  This marks an increase from the June 30, 2024, figure of 42,362 MW, primarily driven by additions in renewables and minor contributions from other sources.


Generation

Lucky Electric Power Company Limited (LEPCL) generated a net electrical output of 1,018.68 GWh during FY25, down from 1,688.45 GWh in FY24.


Performance Benchmark

The contractually agreed availability for the plant over the 30-year term is set at 85%, with non-compliance resulting in Liquidated Damages (LDs) imposed by the Power Purchaser. During the half-year ended December 31, 2025, the plant achieved the required availability, demonstrating strong operational efficiency and reliability. However, in January 2026, the plant did not achieve the required availability.


Financial Risk
Financing Structure Analysis

Lucky Electric's capital structure comprises 25% equity and 75% debt financing of the initial estimated project cost of approximately USD 895 million, financed through local and foreign financial institutions. Local facilities obtained from a consortium of banks aggregate to PKR 65.9 billion, with a tenure of 10 years commencing from June 2022, repayable in 40 quarterly installments. As of March 1, 2026, the Company has repaid PKR 10.1 billion (approximately 15%) of the local loan principal. The foreign facility amounts to USD 210 million, comprising USD 20 million repayable quarterly and USD 190 million repayable semi-annually. To date, the Company has repaid USD 5.8 million out of the USD 20 million facility and USD 48.2 million out of the USD 190 million facility, representing an overall repayment of approximately 26% of the foreign debt.


Liquidity Profile

Independent Power Producers (IPPs) continue to face payment delays from the power purchaser due to ongoing circular debt challenges in the country. As a result, Lucky Electric Power Company relies on short-term borrowings to meet its liquidity needs, with cash and bank balances standing at PKR 1,779 million as of December 31, 2025. However, the Company benefits from the explicit financial support of the Yunus Brothers Group (YBG), ensuring stability and the ability to navigate liquidity challenges effectively.


Working Capital Financing

The Company manages its working capital needs through internal cash flows and short-term borrowings due to delayed payments from the power purchaser. Receivables of the Company stood at PKR 19,386 million as of June 30, 2025, compared to PKR 33,604 million as of June 30, 2024. As of December 31, 2025, receivables further declined to PKR 16,371 million. Short-term borrowings stood at PKR 17,790 million as of June 30, 2025, down from PKR 40,450 million as of June 30, 2024. As of December 31, 2025, short-term borrowings were recorded at PKR 20,592 million.


Cash Flow Analysis

The stability and sustainability of Lucky Electric's future cash flows depend entirely on the continuous operation of its power plant. During the year ended June 30, 2025, the Company generated FCFO of PKR 47,247 million, compared to PKR 55,812 million during the year ended June 30, 2024. For the half-year ended December 31, 2025, FCFO stood at PKR 20,931 million. The interest coverage ratio improved to 2.7x as of December 31, 2025, compared to 2.3x as of June 30, 2025, and 1.8x as of June 30, 2024.


Capitalization

The project has incurred a project cost of USD 895 million with a 75:25 debt-to-equity ratio. As of June 30, 2025, the ratio stood at 65.1%, with total debt of the Company at PKR 124,005 million and equity at PKR 66,552 million.


 
 

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(PKR mln)


Dec-25
6M
Jun-25
12M
Jun-24
12M
Jun-23
12M
A. BALANCE SHEET
1. Non-Current Assets 132,846 135,697 139,409 146,974
2. Investments 0 0 0 0
3. Related Party Exposure 0 0 0 0
4. Current Assets 66,769 66,511 79,554 76,150
a. Inventories 5,073 4,738 11,612 9,227
b. Trade Receivables 39,605 19,386 33,604 30,859
5. Total Assets 199,615 202,208 218,963 223,123
6. Current Liabilities 6,544 11,502 13,337 23,069
a. Trade Payables 1,866 3,559 6,078 8,221
7. Borrowings 121,813 124,005 153,675 161,659
8. Related Party Exposure 0 0 0 0
9. Non-Current Liabilities 85 149 124 116
10. Net Assets 71,172 66,552 51,827 38,279
11. Shareholders' Equity 71,172 66,552 51,827 38,279
B. INCOME STATEMENT
1. Sales 34,490 70,080 90,954 98,280
a. Cost of Good Sold (15,605) (27,246) (39,511) (62,126)
2. Gross Profit 18,885 42,835 51,443 36,154
a. Operating Expenses (441) (681) (737) (545)
3. Operating Profit 18,444 42,153 50,706 35,609
a. Non Operating Income or (Expense) 30 94 169 74
4. Profit or (Loss) before Interest and Tax 18,474 42,247 50,875 35,683
a. Total Finance Cost (7,865) (21,513) (31,302) (26,231)
b. Taxation (9) (27) (40) (62)
6. Net Income Or (Loss) 10,600 20,707 19,533 9,390
C. CASH FLOW STATEMENT
a. Free Cash Flows from Operations (FCFO) 20,931 47,247 55,812 40,446
b. Net Cash from Operating Activities before Working Capital Changes 12,897 24,749 24,429 16,387
c. Changes in Working Capital (3,495) 12,198 (17,976) (11,708)
1. Net Cash provided by Operating Activities 9,402 36,947 6,453 4,679
2. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Investing Activities (247) (327) (783) (1,082)
3. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Financing Activities (7,661) (36,725) (12,480) 1,774
4. Net Cash generated or (Used) during the period 1,495 (106) (6,810) 5,371
D. RATIO ANALYSIS
1. Performance
a. Sales Growth (for the period) -1.6% -22.9% -7.5% 278.7%
b. Gross Profit Margin 54.8% 61.1% 56.6% 36.8%
c. Net Profit Margin 30.7% 29.5% 21.5% 9.6%
d. Cash Conversion Efficiency (FCFO adjusted for Working Capital/Sales) 50.6% 84.8% 41.6% 29.2%
e. Return on Equity [ Net Profit Margin * Asset Turnover * (Total Assets/Shareholders' Equity )] 29.6% 29.9% 37.3% 26.8%
2. Working Capital Management
a. Gross Working Capital (Average Days) 182 181 171 132
b. Net Working Capital (Average Days) 168 155 142 101
c. Current Ratio (Current Assets / Current Liabilities) 10.2 5.8 6.0 3.3
3. Coverages
a. EBITDA / Finance Cost 2.7 2.3 1.8 1.6
b. FCFO / Finance Cost+CMLTB+Excess STB 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.2
c. Debt Payback (Total Borrowings+Excess STB) / (FCFO-Finance Cost) 3.9 3.9 5.5 10.0
4. Capital Structure
a. Total Borrowings / (Total Borrowings+Shareholders' Equity) 63.1% 65.1% 74.8% 80.9%
b. Interest or Markup Payable (Days) 44.1 38.3 38.8 51.9
c. Entity Average Borrowing Rate 12.4% 15.0% 19.4% 16.5%

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