Rating History
Dissemination Date Long-Term Rating Short-Term Rating Outlook Action Rating Watch
22-May-26 AA A1 Developing Maintain YES
23-May-25 AA A1 Developing Maintain YES
24-May-24 AA A1 Stable Downgrade YES
26-May-23 AA+ A1+ Negative Maintain YES
27-May-22 AA+ A1+ Negative Maintain -
About the Entity

NRL is the third-largest refinery in Pakistan with a designed capacity of ~23.1MBPA, comprising two lube and one fuel refinery. The Attock Group retains majority ownership of 51% through Attock Refinery Limited (25%), Pakistan Oilfields Limited (25%), and Attock Petroleum Limited (1%). Other significant shareholders include the Islamic Development Bank (15%), and institutional investors collectively encompassing banks, insurance companies, NBFIs, joint stock companies, investment companies, Modarabas, mutual funds, and trusts (12%). The general public holds (22%) of the issued share capital. Mr. Shuaib A. Malik, a veteran with over 40 years in Attock Group, serves as Chairman of the Board, while Mr. Asad Hasan serves as a CEO, appointed in December 2024.

Rating Rationale

National Refinery Limited’s assigned ratings reflect its position as a strategic pillar of Pakistan’s downstream energy sector and a key entity within the diversified Attock Group. Pakistan's refining sector remains highly exposed to global petroleum price dynamics, with refinery gross margins (GRMs) sensitive to movements in crude oil and refined product benchmarks. Accordingly, shifts in international oil markets, driven by geopolitical developments, supply-demand imbalances, and crude price volatility, directly impact sector profitability. In FY26, a late February regional conflict temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz, Pakistan's key crude import route, driving crude prices from around USD 69 to USD 167 per barrel while sharply increasing freight and insurance costs. Despite supply-side challenges, product crack spreads widened significantly, enabling the sector to swing from losses to a collective profit in Q3, with outcomes varying across refineries based on sourcing flexibility, operational agility, and exposure to seaborne supply chains. Within this environment, NRL reported a net profit of PKR 9.07 billion for 9MFY26, reversing a net loss of PKR 14.49 billion in SPLY, supported by favorable market conditions and management-driven strategic positioning. A strategic shift in the crude slate toward a higher proportion of Arab Extra Light crude improved middle distillate yields, allowing NRL to benefit from widening crack spreads. As reflected in December's and March's results, these actions delivered a positive bottom line and stronger cash flow, underscoring that the outcome was supported by both market conditions and proactive operational planning. During the March sea-route disruption, when a key cargo was stranded due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, management demonstrated strong execution capability by actively managing crude sourcing across multiple regions. Local crude and condensate covered nearly one-third of requirements, Gulf volumes were rerouted via the Red Sea, and additional spot cargoes were arranged through Fujairah, pushing throughput to 1.59 million MT (approximately 70% utilization) in 9MFY26 versus 54% last year. Net revenue rose 29.1% to PKR 291.6 billion, driven by a 55.2% increase in HSD sales and a 40.9% rise in Mogas sales, while finance costs declined 28% to PKR 5.75 billion. The profit was achieved alongside extraordinary market conditions, though any gradual downward correction in oil prices and its impact on inventory valuation remains an ongoing consideration for the Company. On the upgrading front, NRL has planned upgradations mentioned under the Brownfield Refinery Policy 2023 (updated in February 2024) to materially enhance conversion efficiency and product slate. However, implementation remains delayed due to unresolved policy-related matters under discussion with the government. Meanwhile, the Company continues strengthening operational resilience through enhanced asset management practices, including Risk-Based Inspection and Reliability-Centered Maintenance, supporting long-term profitability once policy clarity is achieved.

Key Rating Drivers

Going forward, the rating will remain dependent on the sustainability of the Company's profitability, which will be primarily based on the successful implementation of its own strategic initiatives, including the optimization of high-margin product mix, strategic crude procurement policies, agile crisis response capabilities, and operational throughput management. The rating will also factor in the Company's ability to generate consistent cash flows and meet debt servicing obligations, while progress on the Brownfield Refinery Policy and the associated upgrade plans will remain an important consideration.

Profile
Legal Structure

National Refinery Limited (NRL or "the Company") was established in Pakistan on August 19, 1963, as a public limited entity. The Company's shares are listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange.


Background

In July 2005, the Attock Group acquired a 51% shareholding in National Refinery Limited and assumed management control following a competitive bidding process under the Government of Pakistan's privatization program. This acquisition integrated NRL into one of the country's leading oil conglomerates with a strong presence across the petroleum value chain.


Operations

The Company is engaged in the manufacturing, processing, and sale of a wide range of petroleum products. Its refinery complex comprises three refineries, two lube refineries commissioned in 1966 and 1985, and a fuel refinery added to the complex in 1977. In addition, the Company commissioned a Diesel Hydro De-Sulphurisation (DHDS) unit in FY2017 and an Isomerisation (ISOM) unit in FY2018 to enhance product quality and meet evolving environmental standards. The first and second lube refineries have a designed capacity of 568,860 and 805,000 barrels per year of lube base oil, respectively, while the fuel refinery carries a crude oil processing capacity of 17,490,000 barrels per year.


Ownership
Ownership Structure

The Attock Group retains majority ownership of 51% through Attock Refinery Limited (25%), Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL) (25%), and Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) (1%). Other significant shareholders include the Islamic Development Bank (15%), and institutional investors collectively encompassing banks, insurance companies, NBFIs, joint stock companies, investment companies, Modarabas, mutual funds, and trusts (12%). The general public holds (22%) of the issued share capital.


Stability

The Attock Group maintains a long-standing and stable presence in Pakistan's oil and energy sector, with decades of integrated experience spanning exploration, production, refining, and the marketing of petroleum products. The Group has demonstrated consistent operational continuity and disciplined management through successive market cycles and industry transitions. Its diversified upstream and downstream operations provide a resilient revenue base, reinforcing financial stability. This sustained performance over time reflects both the strength of the Group's strategic orientation and the depth of its leadership and governance structures.


Business Acumen

The Attock Group occupies a leading position in Pakistan's oil and energy sector, with operations extending across the full value chain, from exploration and production through to refining and product marketing. Backed by extensive technical expertise and decades of sectoral experience, the Group has cultivated a strong reputation for operational excellence and sound business management. Its enduring presence in the domestic market, spanning over a century, underscores deep-rooted industry knowledge and the capacity to adapt effectively within a continuously evolving commercial landscape.


Financial Strength

The Attock Group benefits from the strong backing of its principal sponsor, Pharaon Investment Group Limited Holding (PIGLH), a diversified international conglomerate with a broad global business footprint. The Group's financial strength is evidenced by sustained profitability, a solid asset base, and a portfolio of well-capitalised listed entities, including Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL), Attock Refinery Limited (ARL), and Attock Petroleum Limited (APL).


Governance
Board Structure

The Board of Directors comprises eight members, including one Executive Director, three Independent Directors, and four Non-Executive Directors. Four members represent the Attock Group, while one member represents the Islamic Development Bank. The current Board composition is consistent with best practices in corporate governance, ensuring a balanced mix of oversight, independence, and strategic guidance.


Members’ Profile

The Board of Directors at NRL comprises experienced professionals with diverse expertise across the oil and gas sector. Mr. Shuaib A. Malik, the Chairman, brings over four decades of experience with the Attock Group, encompassing extensive knowledge of upstream, midstream, and downstream petroleum operations. Other Board members contribute specialised experience in energy, finance, governance, and corporate leadership, collectively supporting effective oversight and informed strategic decision-making. Several members hold leadership roles in prominent organisations and actively participate in key Board committees, reinforcing the quality of governance and guidance provided to the Company.


Board Effectiveness

During FY25, the Board convened meetings with full majority participation to review and deliberate on key operational and financial matters. To support effective oversight and governance, the Board operates through two established committees: the Audit Committee and the HR & Remuneration Committee. The Audit Committee continued to provide rigorous review of the Company's financial reporting, internal controls, and regulatory compliance, while the HR & Remuneration Committee remained focused on human resource policies and related matters. All committee meetings were conducted with complete participation of appointed members, reflecting the Board's commitment to accountability and sound corporate governance.


Financial Transparency

The Board continues to adhere to the SECP Code of Corporate Governance, upholding transparency, accountability, and ethical conduct as foundational principles. For FY25, the financial statements were subjected to a comprehensive external audit by A.F. Ferguson & Co., Chartered Accountants, who issued an unqualified opinion stating that the statement of financial position, statement of profit or loss, statement of comprehensive income, statement of changes in equity, and statement of cash flows, present a true and fair view of the state of the Company's affairs as at June 30, 2025.


Management
Organizational Structure

The Company operates through six functional divisions, namely: Operations; People and Culture; Administration; Commercial and Strategy; Finance and Corporate Affairs; and Procurement and Contracts, each headed by a qualified and experienced resource. A well-defined hierarchical structure ensures clear delineation of responsibilities and seamless reporting lines, with each divisional head accountable directly to the Chief Executive Officer.


Management Team

The Company is led by Mr. Asad Hasan as Chief Executive Officer, supported by a seasoned senior management team overseeing core functional areas. Mr. Nouman Ahmed Usmani (Chartered Accountant) serves as General Manager - Finance & Corporate Affairs and Chief Financial Officer, bringing over 25 years of overall experience. Operations are overseen by Mr. Muhammad Irfan (B.E. Chemical Engineering) as General Manager - Operations, while commercial functions are headed by Mr. Amir Ahmed Khan (MBA) as General Manager - Commercial, Strategy and Enovation. Administrative matters are managed by Mr. Rana Waqar Haider (MBA (HRM), PGD (HRM)) as General Manager - Administration. Human resource matters are overseen by Ms. Mona Faisal (MBA (HR-IBA)) as Advisor People & Culture. Mr. Badruddin Khan (Cost and Management Accountant) serves as Company Secretary. This leadership team convenes on a fortnightly basis, ensuring seamless refinery operations while proactively addressing emerging trends and developments within the sector.


Effectiveness

NRL has deployed SAP's ERP ECC-6 platform and generates MIS reports on a daily, fortnightly, and monthly basis. These reports encompass daily cash positions, production summaries, saleable stock positions, Treasury and Accounts section reporting, debtor ageing, monthly management accounts, and expense monitoring. The Company has additionally developed an in-house Crude Oil Management System for recording oil movements and crude oil procurement, which is used to maintain accurate crude oil inventory balances.


MIS

The Company maintains a firm commitment to the accuracy and reliability of its financial statements and the transparency of all transactions, in accordance with established procedures and practices. The scope of internal audit is clearly defined, encompassing review and evaluation of internal control systems across the Company's activities and processes. NRL conducts periodic risk assessments and audits with the objective of setting and reviewing operational targets, providing assurance across functions, and improving HSEQ standards and loss control mechanisms.


Control Environment

The Company maintains a firm commitment to the accuracy and reliability of its financial statements and the transparency of all transactions, in accordance with established procedures and practices. The scope of internal audit is clearly defined, encompassing review and evaluation of internal control systems across the Company's activities and processes. NRL conducts periodic risk assessments and audits with the objective of setting and reviewing operational targets, providing assurance across functions, and improving HSEQ standards and loss control mechanisms.


Business Risk
Industry Dynamics

As of 9MFY26, Pakistan's refining sector witnessed a pronounced operational recovery, underpinned by higher refinery upliftment, improved product crack spreads, and stronger MS and HSD sales volumes. Industry-wide refinery production advanced 10.7% YoY in April 2026 to approximately 993k tonnes, driven primarily by higher HSD and MS output, while average sector utilisation improved to 58.1% against 52.5% in April 2025. Among individual refineries, Pakistan Refinery Limited recorded the highest utilisation at 76.1%, followed by National Refinery Limited at 62.4% and Attock Refinery Limited at 59.4%. Sector profitability improved materially during 3QFY26, with listed refineries collectively reporting net profits of approximately PKR 43 billion against a loss of PKR 6 billion in the corresponding period of the prior year, supported by elevated MS and HSD cracks and improved volumetric performance.

Downstream demand, however, remained mixed, OMC sales declined approximately 7% YoY in April 2026 amid elevated fuel prices and geopolitical uncertainty, though FO offtake increased sharply, rising 26.0% YoY to 235k tonnes in the same month. The increase was driven by higher FO-based power generation, as LNG supply disruptions, stemmed from Qatar's force majeure, triggered by the Iran war, compelled Pakistan's power sector to operate FO-fired plants at elevated capacity to offset the shortfall in gas availability.

Concurrently, global energy markets experienced extraordinary volatility as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to the unprecedented closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for approximately 20% of global oil flows. The disruption materially curtailed crude availability and precipitated a sharp escalation in benchmark prices, with the Dubai-Oman crude basket surging by over 100% to peak near USD 170 per barrel during March 2026, while freight, insurance, and Additional War Risk Premiums multiplied manifold, amplifying working capital pressures across the oil supply chain.

Despite the near-term operational recovery, the sector continues to confront structural headwinds, including persistently weak long-term FO demand, a GST deadlock that has effectively frozen the USD 6 billion brownfield refinery upgrade programme, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding fiscal incentives and input tax recoverability. Sustained policy clarity and timely implementation of refinery modernisation plans remain essential to securing long-term sector competitiveness and viability.


Relative Position

Pakistan's refining sector is structured as an oligopoly comprising five principal players, PARCO, Attock Refinery Limited (ATRL), National Refinery Limited (NRL), Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL), and Cnergyico, with PARCO holding the dominant position. PARCO's market share stood at approximately 50.2% in 1QFY26 (1QFY25: 46.3%), reinforcing its sector leadership. NRL and ATRL maintained mid-tier positioning, with NRL accounting for 15.1% of sector volumes in 1QFY26, broadly comparable to its 12.5% share in the corresponding period of the prior year, reflecting improved throughput and upliftment performance.

Within this competitive landscape, NRL recorded total sales growth of 29% YoY during 9MFY26, underpinned by a marked improvement in high-value product upliftment. HSD sales rose 39.7% YoY while MS sales advanced 38.4% YoY over the same period, reflecting the operational gains achieved through higher throughput, optimised product slate management, and the Company's ability to capitalise on elevated international product margins during the period of significant price volatility in early 2026.


Revenues

For 9MFY26, NRL reported net revenues of PKR 291.6 billion against PKR 225.9 billion in the corresponding period, representing a growth of approximately 29% YoY, a turnaround driven by the convergence of higher throughput, improved product pricing, and an enhanced sales mix. The revenue recovery was underpinned by management's proactive measures in securing alternative crude sources amid the Strait of Hormuz disruption, including local crude and condensate procurement (contributing nearly 30% of feed in March 2026 versus a typical 5%), spot purchases of Murban crude from ADNOC at Fujairah, and rerouting of Aramco contract volumes via the Red Sea, interventions that collectively sustained refinery operations at approximately 60–70% throughput through the period of maximum disruption.

HSD revenues reached PKR 227.5 billion for 9MFY26 (9MFY25: PKR 146.5 billion), while Motor Gasoline revenues amounted to PKR 62.9 billion (9MFY25: PKR 44.6 billion), collectively reflecting the uplift from both higher volumes and elevated product prices during the geopolitically elevated pricing environment of 3QFY26. The step-up in HSD and Mogas volumes was structurally supported by management's strategic transition toward Arab Extra Light crude in its feedstock mix, which improved the ratio of lighter, higher-value distillates in the output slate and directly amplified revenue capture per barrel processed. Export revenues also increased to PKR 39.6 billion for 9MFY26, further broadening the revenue base.


Margins

NRL's gross profit margin for 9MFY26 recovered to 8.1%, compared to a loss margin of 2.5% in 9MFY25, while the net profit margin reached 3.1% (9MFY25: -6.4%). This recovery was underpinned by the sharp improvement in international product crack spreads following the Strait of Hormuz closure, which drove product prices, particularly HSD and jet fuel, to elevated levels and enabled the Company to realise substantially higher per-barrel margins on volumes processed during 3QFY26.

Higher throughput also supported economies of scale, allowing unit costs to be absorbed over a larger production base. Gross profit for the nine-month period reached PKR 23.5 billion against a gross loss of PKR 7.9 billion in the corresponding prior period, while operating profit stood at PKR 20.6 billion versus an operating loss of PKR 9.0 billion previously. Finance costs declined by approximately PKR 2.3 billion YoY, primarily reflecting lower benchmark interest rates, further contributing to the improvement in net profitability.


Sustainability

The Company's sustainability strategy is oriented toward strengthening operational reliability, elevating product quality, and reducing the environmental footprint of its refining operations. NRL continues to implement internationally recognised methodologies, including Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) and Reliability-Centred Maintenance (RCM), to enhance asset integrity, plant uptime, and process efficiency. Concurrently, the Company is reinforcing its goal-zero HSE culture to ensure uncompromising compliance with health, safety, and environmental standards.

On the commercial front, the Company has broadened its product portfolio to include premium-grade offerings such as MS 95 RON, slack wax, and other value-added derivatives, targeting both domestic and export markets. In parallel, NRL is advancing plans under the Brownfield Refinery Policy 2023 (as updated in February 2024) for key plant upgrade projects, aimed at converting low-value residues into high-value products, reducing Furnace Oil production, and enhancing compliance with Euro-V fuel specifications, subject to resolution of outstanding policy and fiscal matters.


Financial Risk
Working capital

As of March 31, 2026, NRL's working capital position was materially influenced by the extraordinary supply chain dynamics of the period. Total current assets expanded to PKR 137.5 billion (FY25: PKR 64.9 billion), driven primarily by a sharp increase in inventories to PKR 76.9 billion and trade receivables to PKR 47.6 billion, both reflecting the elevated crude oil prices and enlarged sales volumes characteristic of the period. Simultaneously, current liabilities surged to PKR 102.4 billion (FY25: PKR 37.5 billion), with trade payables rising sharply to PKR 85.4 billion from PKR 19.9 billion, largely a consequence of higher-priced crude procurement and temporary Hormuz-related supply chain disruptions.

The current ratio moderated to 1.3x (FY25: 1.7x), reflecting the asymmetric pace of liability accumulation relative to asset growth during the period. Short-term borrowings declined to PKR 41.4 billion from PKR 45.7 billion, supported by improved operating cash generation, while finance costs for the nine months fell by approximately PKR 2.3 billion YoY as a result of lower interest rates. Disciplined working capital management remains a key priority as the Company navigates the post-disruption normalisation of its supply chain and pricing environment.


Coverages

Coverage metrics improved substantially during 9MFY26, reflecting the strong rebound in operating profitability. Free Cash Flows from Operations (FCFO) turned sharply positive at PKR 19.6 billion (FY25: negative PKR 7.6 billion), enabling meaningful debt service capacity. The FCFO/Finance cost ratio strengthened to 3.4x (FY25: negative 0.7x), while the debt payback period contracted to 1.1x, a significant improvement from the negative payback position in the prior year. This recovery was driven by the combination of higher product prices, improved throughput, and lower financing costs, which collectively restored the Company's ability to generate surplus cash flows above its debt obligations.


Capitalization

As of March 31, 2026, NRL's capital structure reflected progressive deleveraging from the elevated borrowing levels that characterised prior periods. In a strategic move to ease liquidity pressures, the Company secured a PKR 15 billion medium-term loan facility in FY2025 with a three-year tenor (including a one-year grace period). This provided significant relief to the Company's financial indicators by creating additional headroom in short-term borrowing lines for operational flexibility. The Company made timely repayments on the current portion of its long-term loan facility, reducing long-term borrowings to PKR 5.6 billion from PKR 11.3 billion, with the portion reclassified to current maturities amounting to PKR 7.5 billion. The leverage ratio improved to 47.9% (June 30, 2025: 54.7%), supported by the Company's return to profitability and the consequent accretion to reserves during the nine-month period. Shareholders' equity strengthened to PKR 59.4 billion (June 30, 2025: PKR 50.3 billion), with accumulated losses of PKR 29.2 billion partially offset by the land revaluation surplus of PKR 46.1 billion. Sustained profitability and continued debt management will be essential to further consolidating the Company's balance sheet and restoring its long-term capitalisation strength.


 
 

May-26

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(PKR mln)


Mar-26
9M
Jun-25
12M
Jun-24
12M
Jun-23
12M
A. BALANCE SHEET
1. Non-Current Assets 79,832 84,527 35,299 32,977
2. Investments 14 14 15 15
3. Related Party Exposure 175 174 0 0
4. Current Assets 137,285 64,781 67,859 78,788
a. Inventories 76,900 29,442 49,720 48,137
b. Trade Receivables 47,554 17,759 9,855 22,915
5. Total Assets 217,307 149,496 103,172 111,780
6. Current Liabilities 102,389 37,497 30,465 38,869
a. Trade Payables 85,383 19,912 18,017 28,223
7. Borrowings 54,575 60,758 52,792 37,516
8. Related Party Exposure 24 55 7 60
9. Non-Current Liabilities 936 869 692 736
10. Net Assets 59,383 50,316 19,217 34,599
11. Shareholders' Equity 59,383 50,316 19,217 34,599
B. INCOME STATEMENT
1. Sales 291,624 307,663 308,842 298,805
a. Cost of Good Sold (268,126) (313,897) (316,610) (285,609)
2. Gross Profit 23,498 (6,234) (7,768) 13,197
a. Operating Expenses (1,927) (2,009) (1,830) (2,483)
3. Operating Profit 21,571 (8,243) (9,598) 10,713
a. Non Operating Income or (Expense) (928) 546 252 408
4. Profit or (Loss) before Interest and Tax 20,642 (7,696) (9,346) 11,122
a. Total Finance Cost (5,749) (10,331) (9,310) (16,244)
b. Taxation (5,826) 3,161 2,866 660
6. Net Income Or (Loss) 9,067 (14,867) (15,790) (4,463)
C. CASH FLOW STATEMENT
a. Free Cash Flows from Operations (FCFO) 19,556 (7,550) (7,149) 3,545
b. Net Cash from Operating Activities before Working Capital Changes 14,162 (15,927) (16,168) (2,167)
c. Changes in Working Capital (7,092) 9,720 2,228 (15,035)
1. Net Cash provided by Operating Activities 7,070 (6,207) (13,941) (17,202)
2. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Investing Activities (692) (1,604) (1,337) (584)
3. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Financing Activities 4,179 (6,275) 15,237 17,774
4. Net Cash generated or (Used) during the period 10,557 (14,086) (41) (13)
D. RATIO ANALYSIS
1. Performance
a. Sales Growth (for the period) 26.4% -0.4% 3.4% 18.6%
b. Gross Profit Margin 8.1% -2.0% -2.5% 4.4%
c. Net Profit Margin 3.1% -4.8% -5.1% -1.5%
d. Cash Conversion Efficiency (FCFO adjusted for Working Capital/Sales) 4.3% 0.7% -1.6% -3.8%
e. Return on Equity [ Net Profit Margin * Asset Turnover * (Total Assets/Shareholders' Equity )] 22.0% -42.8% -58.7% -12.0%
2. Working Capital Management
a. Gross Working Capital (Average Days) 81 63 77 81
b. Net Working Capital (Average Days) 31 41 50 45
c. Current Ratio (Current Assets / Current Liabilities) 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.0
3. Coverages
a. EBITDA / Finance Cost 3.7 -0.6 -0.7 0.3
b. FCFO / Finance Cost+CMLTB+Excess STB 1.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.2
c. Debt Payback (Total Borrowings+Excess STB) / (FCFO-Finance Cost) 1.1 -1.9 -0.9 -0.0
4. Capital Structure
a. Total Borrowings / (Total Borrowings+Shareholders' Equity) 47.9% 54.7% 73.3% 52.0%
b. Interest or Markup Payable (Days) 40.8 42.0 49.1 25.8
c. Entity Average Borrowing Rate 12.6% 18.5% 22.9% 46.9%

May-26

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May-26

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May-26

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