Rating History
Dissemination Date Long-Term Rating Short-Term Rating Outlook Action Rating Watch
18-Jun-26 AA- A1+ Stable Maintain -
20-Jun-25 AA- A1+ Stable Maintain -
20-Jun-24 AA- A1+ Stable Maintain -
22-Jun-23 AA- A1+ Stable Maintain -
22-Jun-22 AA- A1+ Stable Maintain -
About the Entity

Narowal Energy Limited ("Narowal Energy" or "the Company"), a wholly owned subsidiary of The Hub Power Company Limited (HUBCO), operates a 225 MW residual fuel oil (RFO)-fueled power plant located in Narowal, Punjab. The plant commenced commercial operations in April 2011 under the Power Policy 2002 and is designed as an engine-based combined cycle facility with an average efficiency of approximately 45%. Following a court-approved demerger, Narowal Energy assumed ownership and operations of the plant in March 2017. The Company is governed by a four-member Board comprising representatives of HUBCO. Mr. Kamran Kamal serves as the Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Company, supported by an experienced management team with extensive expertise in Pakistan’s power sector.

Rating Rationale

The ratings reflect Narowal Energy’s strong ownership profile as a wholly owned subsidiary of HUBCO, coupled with its established contractual framework under the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with CPPA-G. The Company maintains a sound operational profile, evidenced by plant availability of approximately 98% during 1HFY26, in line with the contractual benchmark. Operational risk remained low, supported by the outsourcing of operations and maintenance activities to Hub Power Services Limited (HPSL), an associated HUBCO entity with a proven track record in managing power assets.
The Company entered a new operational phase following the execution of the amended PPA in February 2025, which introduced tariff revisions and transitioned the return on equity component to a hybrid take-and-pay structure. The revised framework reduces revenue certainty relative to the historical take-or-pay mechanism. During FY25, sales revenue declined to PKR 6,076 million from PKR 15,342 million in FY24, primarily due to lower dispatch levels, reduced demand from the power purchaser, the Company's position on the merit order list, and transitional impacts associated with amendments to the PPA, including revisions to the tariff structure and indexation mechanism.
During 9MFY26, operational performance slightly improved, with net electricity generation increasing to 82 GWh from 22 GWh in the corresponding period last year. The improvement was driven by a higher load factor of 6% compared to 2% in 9MFY25, resulting in sales revenue increasing to PKR 5,624 million from PKR 4,641 million. Nevertheless, dispatch levels remained constrained due to the relatively higher cost of RFO-based generation compared to others. Furthermore, Narowal Energy reported a dividend payable of PKR 10,148 million to its parent company, HUBCO, as of June 2025, reflecting its earnings capacity and continued support to the shareholder.
Narowal Energy's financial risk profile remains strong, supported by the complete repayment of project-related long-term debt in 2021. As of March 2026, leverage remained minimal at 1.2%, while short-term borrowing declined to PKR 195 million. The Company reported receivables of PKR 3.7 billion from CPPA-G, primarily related to capacity and energy invoices and delayed payment interest. Although cash flow generation moderated amid subdued dispatch levels, coverage indicators remain robust, supported by the Company's debt-free capital structure, strong equity base, and continued support from HUBCO.

Key Rating Drivers

The strong financial standing and strategic support of The Hub Power Company Limited remain key strengths underpinning the assigned ratings. Going forward, maintaining operational performance above contractual benchmarks, ensuring timely recovery of receivables, and effectively managing liquidity under the amended PPA framework will remain important rating considerations. Furthermore, the Company's ability to navigate the persistent lower-than-available dispatch levels and the evolving regulatory environment will be critical. Continued financial discipline, adherence to contractual obligations, and prudent liquidity management will remain essential for sustaining the current rating profile.

Profile
Plant

Narowal Energy Limited (NEL), a wholly owned subsidiary of Hub Power Company Limited, operates a 225 MW residual fuel oil (RFO)-fired power plant situated at Mouza Poong in Narowal, Punjab, approximately 150 km northeast of Lahore. The facility extends over an area of 62 acres and was completed in 2010, with commercial operations commencing on April 21, 2011. The plant is configured as an engine-based combined cycle power facility, comprising 11 generating units powered by MAN 18V48/60 engines, each with a rated capacity of 18.428 MWe. It also incorporates 11 Aalborg Heat Recovery Steam Generators and a single air-cooled condensing steam turbine supplied by Dresser-Rand, which contributes an additional 16.45 MWe to the overall output. Designed for continuous base-load operation, the medium-speed, four-stroke, turbocharged engines operate on RFO. Under ISO conditions, the plant achieves a net generation capacity of 225 MWe, with an average combined-cycle efficiency of approximately 45%.


Tariff

Narowal Energy Limited (NEL), a wholly owned subsidiary of HUBCO, had executed an Amendment Agreement dated February 14, 2025 with the Government of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan (GoP) and the Central Power Purchasing Agency (Guarantee) Limited (CPPA-G). The agreement forms part of the broader power sector reforms aimed at rationalizing capacity payments and enhancing the sustainability of the power sector. Under the revised arrangement, certain tariff components have been restructured, and the existing tariff regime has been converted to a Hybrid Take-and-Pay model. The Amendment Agreement became effective from November 1, 2024. Pursuant to the latest notification issued by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA), NEL has been assigned a capacity tariff of PKR 2.2788/kWh for the quarter spanning April to June 2026. The approved capacity tariff comprises several components, including Return on Equity (ROE), Return on Equity During Construction (ROEDC), fixed Operations and Maintenance (O&M) expenses (both local and foreign), and the cost of working capital. The revised tariff framework has also introduced changes to the indexation methodology applicable to O&M expenses. Furthermore, the tariff components relating to the cost of working capital and O&M have been recalibrated in accordance with the amended contractual arrangements. The insurance premium component has also been rationalized, with the allowable tariff capped at 0.9% of the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) cost. For the same period, the variable O&M tariff has been determined at PKR 2.7308/kWh. In line with the existing regulatory framework, all applicable tariff components remain subject to quarterly indexation based on movements in key economic variables, including the local and U.S. Consumer Price Indices (CPI), the PKR/USD exchange rate, and KIBOR. These adjustments are intended to preserve the real value of approved costs and mitigate the impact of inflation, currency fluctuations, and changes in benchmark interest rates. Separately, the energy tariff, which is adjusted on a monthly basis to reflect changes in fuel prices and other pass-through costs, stood at PKR 35.9145/kWh for March 2026, based on the latest available determination. Given the plant's residual fuel oil (RFO)-based generation profile, the energy tariff remains sensitive to fluctuations in international fuel prices and exchange rate movements.


Return on Project

Pursuant to the determination of National Electric Power Regulatory Authority dated May 27, 2025, the ROE and ROEDC components are payable under a Hybrid Take-and-Pay mechanism. Management has confirmed that the Amendment Agreement became effective on November 1, 2024, from which date the revised payment structure is applicable.


Ownership
Ownership Structure

Narowal Energy Limited (“NEL” or “the Company”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Hub Power Company Limited.


Stability

Narowal Energy Limited (NEL) demonstrates strong stability rooted in its ownership as a wholly-owned subsidiary of HUBCO, reflecting the sponsors’ sustained commitment to the power sector. This alignment ensures strategic continuity and reinforces NEL’s position within HUBCO’s diversified portfolio of Independent Power Producer projects. Supported by experienced management and integration with HUBCO allows NEL to leverage shared resources, including operations and maintenance services, enhancing efficiency and risk management. The company’s plant availability and ongoing investments by the parent entity further solidify its financial strength.


Business Acumen

Under the leadership of Mr. Habibullah Khan, HUBCO Group, one of the largest conglomerates in the country with a primary focus on the power sector, has not only solidified its market position there but also demonstrated strategic business acumen through diversification across multiple sectors. The group has a proven track record of successfully executing projects from inception to operation, delivering consistent financial performance. Leveraging this expertise, more recently, HUBCO, through its subsidiary Mega Motor Company (Pvt.) Ltd., has strategically entered the electric mobility market in Pakistan via a joint venture with Mega Conglomerate Private Limited (MCPL), thereby expanding its portfolio into the high-growth sustainable transportation sector.


Financial Strength

HUBCO’s financial strength is highlighted by a diverse investment portfolio and stable dividend streams from its various portfolio companies across the energy chain. This financial strength enables the sponsors to provide essential support to the Company whenever needed, ensuring resilience and growth.


Governance
Board Structure

Narowal Energy Limited (NEL) is overseen by a four-member Board of Directors, with all directors representing the Hub Power Company Limited, the parent entity. Considering the nature and scale of the Company’s operations, this board structure is deemed appropriate, providing sufficient oversight and effective strategic guidance.


Members’ Profile

Mr. Kamran Kamal, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of Narowal Energy Limited (NEL), is an energy technology and policy specialist with extensive experience in business strategy, wholesale electricity market reforms, electricity derivatives, energy technology evaluation, and large-scale infrastructure project structuring. He also serves as the CEO of Hub Power Company Limited and has held various strategic and executive roles within the group, leading major capital projects and driving organizational and business outcomes at leadership and board levels. Mr. Aly Khan is the Chairman of Haleeb Foods Limited and a Director at Qasim International Container Terminal, and is also a SECP-certified director in corporate governance. With over a decade of international experience across London, Singapore, and New York, he has worked with Citigroup and Yang Ming Marine Transport Corporation in various management roles, and in Pakistan has contributed to key ventures, including leading the development of the country’s first commercial LEED-certified building. Mr. Amjad Ali Raja has been associated with the HUBCO Group since 2013, serving in multiple leadership roles before being appointed CEO of Thar Energy Limited and ThalNova Power Thar Limited in July 2024; with an engineering background and over 22 years of experience in the energy sector, he brings strong technical expertise and project leadership capabilities. Mr. Jawwad Ahmed Shakir is a seasoned finance professional with more than 17 years of experience in Pakistan and internationally, having started his career as an Audit Trainee at PwC Pakistan and later working in Risk Advisory Services at PwC. He joined the Company in 2007, where he held key roles across joint venture accounting, accounts payable, and taxation before heading the accounting function, and also undertook an international assignment in Mozambique, where he served for nearly seven years as Chief Accountant.


Board Effectiveness

For effective oversight, the Board convenes meetings on a regular and need-based basis to deliberate on matters pertaining to the Company and its plant operations. The attendance of Board members at these meetings remains satisfactory, ensuring robust supervision of the Company’s affairs and enabling the provision of timely and informed guidance to management on key strategic and operational matters.


Financial Transparency

The Board and management ensure the timely preparation of financial statements that incorporate all material disclosures, with the information presented therein being complete, accurate, and fairly stated. For the financial year FY25, the Company has appointed A. F. Ferguson & Co. as its external auditor, further reinforcing the integrity and reliability of its financial reporting framework.


Management
Organizational Structure

The Company deploys a streamlined organizational structure with proper reporting lines and a hierarchical structure. As of June 30, 2025, the total number of employees was recorded at 60, including seconded/permanent as well as contractual employees. Each division is headed by a senior resource reporting directly to the CEO.


Management Team

Mr. Kamran Kamal has been serving as the Chief Executive Officer of the Company since 2021. He possesses extensive experience in Pakistan's energy and power sector and has been associated with the HUBCO group in various leadership and strategic roles over the years. In addition to his role at the Company, he currently serves as the Chief Executive Officer of The Hub Power Company Limited (HUBCO) and holds directorships on the boards of several group companies, providing strategic oversight across the Group's diversified energy portfolio. The senior management team comprises experienced professionals with the requisite technical, operational, financial, and commercial expertise across their respective functional areas. Supported by established organizational structures and reporting lines, the management team provides continuity in leadership and contributes to effective decision-making, operational efficiency, and the execution of the Company's strategic objectives.


Effectiveness

The management monitors overall performance to maintain optimal effectiveness and ensure continuous improvement. Furthermore, the management is supported by the board in key decisions, which ensures operational stability and strategic success.


Control Environment

The Company has established a robust internal audit function to ensure adherence to internal policies and the effective maintenance of corporate records and information. This function is tasked with assessing the accuracy, completeness, and reliability of key financial and operational data, including billing, invoicing, receivables, payables, inventory, and generation statistics, thereby ensuring the absence of material misstatements. In parallel, management regularly obtains detailed operational reports from the O&M contractors to facilitate ongoing oversight and ensure the efficient and uninterrupted operation of the plant.


Operational Risk
Power Purchase Agreement

The electricity generated by Narowal Energy Limited (NEL) is transmitted to the national grid through the National Grid Company of Pakistan Limited under a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) dated November 20, 2008, with a tenure of 25 years commencing from the Commercial Operations Date (COD) of April 21, 2011. The PPA was renegotiated in 2024 as part of broader power sector reforms initiated by the Government of Pakistan to address the rising circular debt. More recently, in February 2025, the Company entered a new operational phase and formalized an Amendment Agreement with the Government of Pakistan and CPPA(G), introducing revisions to the tariff structure and transitioning the return on equity component to a hybrid take-and-pay model.


Operation and Maintenance

The operations and maintenance (O&M) of the plant were outsourced to Hub Power Services Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Hub Power Company Limited, with effect from April 22, 2016, to ensure optimal plant availability and operational efficiency. In addition to Narowal Energy Limited, HPSL also provides O&M services to other power generation assets within the HUBCO group.


Resource Risk

The Company maintains arrangements for the procurement of Residual Fuel Oil (RFO) to support uninterrupted plant operations and comply with the fuel inventory requirements stipulated under the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA). Historically, the Company entered into a long-term Fuel Supply Agreement (FSA) with BE Energy Limited (formerly Bakri Trading Company) for the supply of furnace oil. Subsequently, pursuant to NEPRA's approval dated March 26, 2025, the Company was permitted to procure RFO from its parent company, HUBCO, at the minimum delivered price, including applicable freight and commercial margins, subject to a cap based on the average actual procurement price incurred by HUBCO. This arrangement provides the Company with greater procurement flexibility while leveraging group-level sourcing efficiencies. While fuel supply and inventory management risks continue to rest with the Company, the availability of multiple procurement avenues, strengthens supply-chain resilience and enhances the reliability of fuel availability for ongoing operations.


Insurance Cover

Narowal Energy Limited has adequate insurance coverage for property damage and business interruption. The insured values for damages include property damage, partially disturbed amount of US$ 1.783 million (up to PKR 509.6mln) & business interruption cover.


Performance Risk
Industry Dynamics

As per the latest available data, Pakistan’s total installed power generation capacity stood at approximately 41,121 MW in FY25, reflecting a decline of around 10.4% year-on-year (FY24: ~45,888 MW), while actual power generation averaged approximately 15,420 MW, down by 1.5% YoY, indicating continued demand-side constraints and underutilization within the system. During 9MFY26, total electricity generation reached 93,131 GWh, registering a 3.3% YoY increase. The country’s energy mix has undergone a gradual structural shift away from thermal sources, with thermal generation declining to approximately 49.0% in FY25, while hydel and nuclear contributions increased to around 30.0% and 17.0%, respectively. Against total annual generation of approximately 135,079 GWh in FY25, the combined share of hydel and renewables remained stable at around 34.0%, indicating consistency in non-thermal contributions. RFO-based generation continues to experience a significant structural decline, with output dropping sharply to 151 GWh in June 2025 (down 42.6% YoY from 263 GWh in June 2024) and further to 91 GWh in March 2026. This contraction is primarily driven by cost competitiveness, as RFO-based plants exhibit substantially higher variable costs relative to coal-, RLNG-, and gas-based alternatives. Consequently, lower-cost sources—particularly local coal and hydel—have captured a larger share of dispatch, pushing RFO-based IPPs further down the merit order and restricting their utilization largely to peak demand periods or hydel shortfalls. This trend is further reinforced by the government’s strategic focus on reducing dependence on imported fuels and promoting indigenous energy sources, including local coal, nuclear, and renewables. Overall, the outlook for RFO-based generation remains challenging, with sustained underutilization expected amid the ongoing transition toward a more cost-efficient and domestically oriented energy mix.


Generation

During 9MFY26, Narowal Energy Limited (NEL) recorded net electricity generation of 82 GWh, compared to 22 GWh in the corresponding period of 9MFY25, indicating a partial recovery in output despite an overall subdued dispatch environment. The relatively low dispatch levels remained primarily attributable to the lower cost of electricity offered by other thermal independent power producers (IPPs), particularly coal- and RLNG-based plants, which continued to limit demand for RFO-based generation.


Performance Benchmark

The plant remained fully available throughout the period, maintaining availability levels consistently above the 95% threshold stipulated under the Power Purchase Agreement, with availability recorded at 98% during 1HFY26. Despite this strong operational performance, dispatch levels remained constrained, resulting in a modest load factor of 6% in 9MFY26, compared to 2% in 9MFY25. On the merit order, Narowal Energy Limited was positioned 48th, primarily due to its reliance on RFO-based generation. The subdued dispatch was largely driven by the comparatively lower marginal cost of electricity from alternative thermal IPPs, particularly coal- and RLNG-fired plants, which continued to suppress demand for RFO-based generation.


Financial Risk
Financing Structure Analysis

The Company fully repaid its long-term project debt by July 2021 and, as a result, currently carries no outstanding long-term borrowings on its balance sheet.


Liquidity Profile

As of Mar 2026, NEL has outstanding receivables of PKR 3,741 million from CPPA(G), primarily related to capacity and energy invoices and interest accrued on delayed payments. 


Working Capital Financing

The the Company has relied on short-term borrowings to manage working capital requirements. As of Mar 2026, total outstanding short-term borrowings declined to PKR 195 million, down from PKR 655 million at the end of June 2025.


Cash Flow Analysis

The Company’s cash flow position weakened during the period, with Free Cash Flow from Operations (FCFO) declining to PKR 1,439 million in 3QFY26 from PKR 2,746 million in 3QFY25, primarily due to tariff revision and reduced demand for RFO-based generation. Despite this decline, the Company is able to meet its financing obligations. The Company's interest coverage ratio (EBITDA/Finance Cost) improved markedly to 236.4x in 3QFY26 from 57.1x in 3QFY25, supported by a lower debt burden following the repayment of long-term obligations and limited reliance on short-term borrowings.


Capitalization

Following the full repayment of its long-term project debt and a decline in plant dispatch, the Company’s leverage profile remains minimal, reflecting limited reliance on short-term borrowings to meet operational requirements. The leverage ratio stood at 1.2% as of March 2026, underscoring a strong equity base and a highly conservative capital structure. In addition, the accumulation of retained earnings over time has further strengthened the Company’s equity position, supporting its track record of consistent dividend distributions in prior periods.


 
 

Jun-26

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(PKR mln)


Mar-26
9M
Jun-25
12M
Jun-24
12M
Jun-23
12M
A. BALANCE SHEET
1. Non-Current Assets 9,967 10,434 11,105 12,120
2. Investments 0 0 1,900 0
3. Related Party Exposure 0 0 0 795
4. Current Assets 9,486 8,120 18,576 24,312
a. Inventories 711 730 1,366 790
b. Trade Receivables 3,741 1,596 12,815 15,707
5. Total Assets 19,452 18,554 31,581 37,228
6. Current Liabilities 2,388 1,936 2,292 3,187
a. Trade Payables 101 81 324 1,265
7. Borrowings 195 656 3,156 5,792
8. Related Party Exposure 108 87 8 103
9. Non-Current Liabilities 0 0 0 0
10. Net Assets 16,761 15,876 26,126 28,147
11. Shareholders' Equity 16,761 15,876 26,126 28,147
B. INCOME STATEMENT
1. Sales 5,624 6,076 15,342 22,452
a. Cost of Good Sold (4,422) (3,272) (10,129) (17,031)
2. Gross Profit 1,203 2,803 5,213 5,421
a. Operating Expenses (413) (324) (143) (86)
3. Operating Profit 790 2,479 5,071 5,335
a. Non Operating Income or (Expense) 115 (2,546) 343 534
4. Profit or (Loss) before Interest and Tax 905 (66) 5,413 5,869
a. Total Finance Cost (6) (32) (428) (567)
b. Taxation (13) (3) (6) (6)
6. Net Income Or (Loss) 886 (102) 4,979 5,296
C. CASH FLOW STATEMENT
a. Free Cash Flows from Operations (FCFO) 1,439 3,218 6,428 6,885
b. Net Cash from Operating Activities before Working Capital Changes 1,337 3,080 5,854 6,512
c. Changes in Working Capital (917) 7,367 1,129 9,552
1. Net Cash provided by Operating Activities 420 10,447 6,983 16,063
2. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Investing Activities 42 (1) (15) (723)
3. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Financing Activities 0 (10,148) (7,834) (10,832)
4. Net Cash generated or (Used) during the period 462 297 (865) 4,508
D. RATIO ANALYSIS
1. Performance
a. Sales Growth (for the period) 23.4% -60.4% -31.7% -18.0%
b. Gross Profit Margin 21.4% 46.1% 34.0% 24.1%
c. Net Profit Margin 15.7% -1.7% 32.5% 23.6%
d. Cash Conversion Efficiency (FCFO adjusted for Working Capital/Sales) 9.3% 174.2% 49.3% 73.2%
e. Return on Equity [ Net Profit Margin * Asset Turnover * (Total Assets/Shareholders' Equity )] 7.2% -0.5% 17.5% 16.8%
2. Working Capital Management
a. Gross Working Capital (Average Days) 165 496 365 329
b. Net Working Capital (Average Days) 161 484 346 274
c. Current Ratio (Current Assets / Current Liabilities) 4.0 4.2 8.1 7.6
3. Coverages
a. EBITDA / Finance Cost 236.4 117.4 15.1 12.2
b. FCFO / Finance Cost+CMLTB+Excess STB 233.9 117.6 15.0 4.9
c. Debt Payback (Total Borrowings+Excess STB) / (FCFO-Finance Cost) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
4. Capital Structure
a. Total Borrowings / (Total Borrowings+Shareholders' Equity) 1.2% 4.0% 10.8% 17.1%
b. Interest or Markup Payable (Days) 0.0 229.5 108.9 181.3
c. Entity Average Borrowing Rate 0.7% 1.1% 11.1% 9.0%

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