Rating History
Dissemination Date Long-Term Rating Short-Term Rating Outlook Action Rating Watch
23-Oct-25 AA- A1 Stable Maintain -
25-Oct-24 AA- A1 Stable Maintain -
25-Oct-23 AA- A1 Stable Upgrade -
16-Feb-23 A A2 Stable Upgrade -
12-Sep-22 A- A2 Stable Maintain YES
About the Entity

Incorporated on May 17, 2016, under the repealed Companies Ordinance, 1984, TEL is a 330MW mine-mouth lignite-fired IPP located at Thar Block II, Sindh. HUBCO holds 60% ownership and management control, followed by Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (30%) and China Machinery Engineering Corporation through CMEC TEL Power Investments Limited (10%). The plant achieved COD on October 1, 2022, operates under long-term Power Purchase and Coal Supply Agreements. Mr. Amjad Ali Raja, appointed CEO in July 2024, has over 22 years of sector experience and reports to a Board of seven directors chaired by Mr. Muhammad Kamran Kamal.

Rating Rationale

Thar Energy Limited (TEL or “the Company”) operates a 330 MW mine-mouth lignite-fired power plant at Block II, Thar Coalfield, District Tharparkar, Sindh, forming part of the energy projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
As of FY25, Pakistan’s power sector generated 127,160 GWh - 6% below the reference target, despite an installed capacity of 45,888 MW. Hydropower and nuclear led the mix with 31.4% and 17.7%, respectively, while local coal contributed a solid 12.2%, underscoring its growing role in ensuring stable base-load generation. Indigenous Thar coal has emerged as a key pillar of energy security, offering cost-effective and reliable power compared to imported fuels. Although imported coal generation rose and comprised of 7.1% of the energy generation due to competitive dispatch, the strategic shift toward local coal is expected to reduce foreign exchange pressures, enhance supply security, and enhance the country’s energy independence in the years ahead.
TEL has signed a Fuel Supply Agreement with Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company for annual procurement of around 1.9MT of lignite coal. The arrangement ensures fuel cost stability and entails minimal resource risk throughout the project’s life, supported by a back-to-back Liquidated Damages (LD) mechanism. The plant benefits from priority dispatch on ISMO’s merit order list due to its low-cost generation profile. For the July–September 2025 quarter, TEL’s generation tariff comprised a capacity charge of PKR 11.8134/kWh and an energy purchase price of PKR 1.0420/kWh. Leveraging its dispatch priority, the plant generated 1,594 GWh in FY25 (FY24: 1,940 GWh) at a load factor of 61.0% (FY24: 73.4%), while maintaining strong operational performance benchmarks.
Financially, Receivables from CPPA-G increased to PKR 18,320mln in FY25 (FY24: PKR 15,364mln), continuing to strain liquidity and leading the Net working days to stand at 22 days as of FY25. However, TEL has repaid ~15% of its project debt to date, reducing the Company’s leverage to 64.3% in FY25 from 72.0% in FY24. In addition, the Company is also disputing USD 23mln HVDC charges linked to COD delays; management, backed by legal counsel, expects no financial liability. A standby letter of credit (SBLC) of up to USD 31mln has been arranged for the benefit of lenders to cover potential cost overruns, financing needs, or funding shortfalls, as per the Sponsor Support Agreement dated January 8, 2019. The SBLC will remain valid until January 2034 or until full repayment of the project debt.
Following the ESG practices according to the HUBCO’s report, environmental standards are taken care of at TEL where all ash yards are lined with geo-membranes to prevent leaching. Further, in reference to HUBCO’s report they are actively pursuing fly ash reuse in cement, roadworks, and recycling partnerships, which are expected to reduce waste management costs.

Key Rating Drivers

The ratings reflect TEL’s strong operational performance, demonstrated by its consistent achievement of efficiency and availability benchmarks that support its favorable merit order position. Timely repayment of project debt and effective cash flow management remain essential for maintaining credit strength. However, sector-wide challenges persist, and there has been no update regarding the Company’s tariff structure. Any future regulatory changes or measures introduced under the ongoing power sector reforms by the Task Force may affect the Company’s ratings.

Profile
Plant

Thar Energy Limited (TEL), an independent power producer (IPP), has established a 330 MW coal-fired power plant in Thar Block II on a Build-Own-Operate (BOO) basis. The plant commenced commercial operations on October 1, 2022.


Tariff

TEL is awarded a levelized tariff by NEPRA of US¢ 8.5015/KWh and Rs. 8.2550/KWh for coal-power projects. The tariff control period is 30 years from the Commercial Operations Date (COD). The tariff is indexed to the Pakistan Rupee-US Dollar exchange rate, US & Pakistan CPI inflation, and interest rate benchmarks such as KIBOR / SOFR. Principal & interest repayments, return on equity (ROE), insurance, fixed and variable O&M costs form part of the adjustable/scalable component; fuel price variations and all taxes/levies are fully passed through to the power purchaser. Under the decision for the July-September 2025 quarter, the capacity charge is Rs. 11.8134/KWh and the energy purchase price is Rs. 1.0420/KWh.


Return on Project

As per NEPRA’s tariff determination, TEL is entitled to a Return on Equity (ROE) of 30.65% per annum, applicable to the project with a 40-month construction period. Since the plant achieved commercial operations in October 2022, this ROE is embedded in the approved tariff and contributes to the company’s regulated returns.


Ownership
Ownership Structure

Thar Energy Limited (TEL) is sponsored by The Hub Power Company Limited (HUBCO), Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC), and China Machinery & Engineering Corporation (CMEC) through CMEC Tel Power Investments Limited (CMEC Dubai). HUBCO holds the controlling stake of 60%, followed by FFC with 30% and CMEC with 10%. As part of the HUBCO Group’s growth strategy, TEL forms a key component of its coal-based portfolio under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), reflecting strong collaboration between local and international partners.


Stability

Stability is underpinned by the long-term strategic investment of its sponsoring groups, including The Hub Power Company Limited (HUBCO), Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited, and China Machinery & Engineering Corporation (CMEC) through CMEC TEL Investments. This strong and diversified sponsorship ensures TEL’s long-term sustainability and operational resilience.


Business Acumen

The sponsor groups have a proven track record in developing and operating power projects across Pakistan, spanning thermal, coal, and renewable energy sources. HUBCO, as the major sponsor, is the country’s largest independent power producer with a total installed capacity of 3,581 MW, held through its wholly owned subsidiary, Hub Power Holdings Limited (HPHL).


Financial Strength

Diversified across multiple sectors, HUBCO and the Fauji Group are among Pakistan’s top conglomerates, supported by strong financial foundations. Their partner, China Machinery & Engineering Corporation (CMEC), brings global engineering expertise and international project experience, further reinforcing TEL’s operational and strategic strength.


Governance
Board Structure

TEL’s Board of Directors comprises seven members, including six non-executive members and the CEO. HUBCO has four nominees on the board (including the Chief Executive Officer), Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited (FFC) is represented by two members, while China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC) has one nominee. The current board members are Mr. Muhammad Kamran Kamal (Chairman), Mr. Aly Khan, Mr. Muhammad Saqib, and Mr. Amjad Ali Raja (CEO) as Hubco nominees; Mr. Jahangir Piracha and Mr. Syed Atif Ali as FFC nominees; and Mr. Zhao Wenke as the CMEC nominee. The Company Secretary is Ms. Zamzam Sohail Kassamal.


Members’ Profile

Mr. Kamran Kamal is the Chairman of the Board of Directors of TEL and also the CEO of The Hub Power Company Limited (HUBCO). He has been associated with HUBCO Group in various capacities and brings vast experience of the local power sector. The remaining members also possess sufficient experience in their respective fields.


Board Effectiveness

The board conducts regular meetings to discuss matters relating to the Company's operations and financials, along with providing supervision and granting approval for other policies of the Company.


Financial Transparency

The management ensures timely preparation of accounts along with maintenance of financial records relating to invoices to the power purchaser. A. F. Ferguson & Co. Chartered Accountants are the external auditors of the company.


Management
Organizational Structure

IPPs are generally featured by a flat organizational structure, mainly comprising finance and technical staff, while the engineering, construction and operations of the plant are outsourced.


Management Team

Mr. Amjad Ali Raja has been appointed as the new CEO in July 2024. He has been associated with HUBCO group since 2013. With an engineering background, Mr. Amjad brings 22 years of experience in the energy sector. The remaining team of individuals possess prerequisite qualification and experience.


Effectiveness

The management is majorly engaged in operational matters relating to the Company including invoicing to CPPAG, internal audit, preparation of accounts and tariff determination while the plant's operations and maintenance are outsourced.


Control Environment

The management has developed a comprehensive internal audit function which ensures timely delivery of data and reports. Furthermore, the operation and maintenance contractors deliver reports to the management relating to the plant operations to ensure smoothness.


Operational Risk
Power Purchase Agreement

Thar Energy Limited has executed a 30-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with the Central Power Purchasing Agency-Government (CPPA-G), under which TEL will supply electricity and issue invoices for both the Energy Purchase Price and the Capacity Purchase Price. The PPA ensures revenue certainty over the term, tying payments to availability (capacity) and actual energy supplied.


Operation and Maintenance

Thar Energy Limited has entered into a long-term contractual arrangement with Hub Power Services Limited (HPSL), a wholly-owned subsidiary of HUBCO, to manage the plant’s operations and maintenance. As part of this, GE Power has also been awarded equipment supply and a 12-year maintenance services agreement for TEL, covering boiler, turbine and generator support, spare parts, inspections, and advisory services.


Resource Risk

TEL sources its coal requirements from Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company (SECMC) under a 30-year Coal Supply Agreement signed at the project’s inception. The risk primarily arises if SECMC fails to deliver the contracted coal quantity or quality, which may affect plant availability and generation. Since the plant is designed specifically for Thar lignite, the absence of alternate local suppliers further heightens dependency on SECMC. Mitigation is provided through a long-term contractual framework and regulatory mechanisms, yet supply chain disruptions, operational challenges at the mine, or policy shifts could still pose risks to TEL’s performance.


Insurance Cover

TEL has arranged comprehensive insurance policies to safeguard its assets and operations. The coverage includes material damage, machinery breakdown, third-party liability, and business interruption/delay in startup losses, ensuring protection of both physical assets and revenue streams. In addition, contractors are contractually bound to pay Liquidated Damages (LDs) in the event that benchmark performance ratios are not achieved. These measures collectively mitigate operational and financial risks associated with unforeseen events, ensuring continuity of plant operations and revenue stability.


Performance Risk
Industry Dynamics

In FY25, Pakistan’s power sector generated approximately 127,160 GWh against an installed capacity of 45,888 MW, remaining broadly unchanged from the previous year and 6% below the reference target. Hydropower dominated the energy mix with about 31%, followed by nuclear at 18%, RLNG at 17%, local coal at 12%, imported coal at 7%, gas at 9%, and solar at 1% (rising to 5% when net-metered capacity is included). Local coal-based generation was recorded at nearly 15,547 GWh, while imported coal surged to 9,066 GWh, an 80% year-on-year increase, driven by more competitive dispatch. Net-metered solar capacity grew sharply to around 2,800 MW, reflecting a shift toward self-generation, while wind maintained a modest 3% share, constrained by curtailments and grid limitations. Demand projections for FY26, under both normal and high scenarios, indicate growth of 2.8% to 5%. Looking ahead, coal, particularly indigenous lignite from Thar, is expected to remain central to Pakistan’s energy security, although dependence on imported coal continues to expose the sector to global price volatility.


Generation

Net electrical output of the plant during FY25 stood at 1,594 GWh (FY24: 1,940 GWh) with a load factor of 61%. The power purchaser continued to source electricity from the plant on priority owing to its low cost of generation.


Performance Benchmark

The required availability for Thar Energy Limited under the PPA is 85%, while the required efficiency is 37%. During the period, the plant operated well above benchmarks, maintaining an average efficiency of 55.16% and meeting its contractual availability requirements.


Financial Risk
Financing Structure Analysis

The estimated project cost of the 330 MW plant is USD 520 million, financed through 75% debt (USD 390 million) and 25% equity (USD 130 million). The debt portion has been arranged through a mix of foreign (~67%) and local (~33%) financing. The foreign debt was provided by a consortium of Chinese lenders led by China Development Bank (CDB) and China Minsheng Banking Corporation Limited, with CDB also acting as financial advisor. The local debt was arranged by a consortium of Pakistani banks led by Bank Alfalah Limited, including HBL, BAHL, NBP, FBL, SBL, and Soneri Bank Limited, with HBL serving as local financial advisor. Foreign debt was initially priced at 6-month LIBOR plus 4.05% per annum, later amended to Daily SOFR + 0.42826% credit adjustment spread + 4.05% per annum, while local debt carries pricing of 3-month KIBOR plus 3.5% per annum, both payable semi-annually. The financing agreements were executed in December 2019, with an effective date of March 6, 2020, and repayments structured in 20 semi-annual instalments (first disbursements in March 2020 for local debt and August 2021 for foreign debt). The loans are secured against a first-ranking hypothecation charge over project assets and pledged shares of the Company in favor of the Security Trustee. Equity contributions were provided by Hub Power Company, Fauji Foundation, and China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC). As of June 2025, approximately 15% of the project debt has been repaid.


Liquidity Profile

TEL, under its off-take agreement with CPPA-G, is entitled to receive capacity payments as long as the plant maintains contractual availability, regardless of whether a purchase order is placed. As of June 2025, the Company’s trade receivables from CPPA-G stood at PKR 18,321 million (2024: PKR 15,364 million), including PKR 21 million overdue from 6 to 12 months. Circular debt remains a persistent challenge for the power sector, compelling IPPs to rely on short-term borrowings and internal cash generation to manage liquidity.


Working Capital Financing

Due to rising trade receivables from CPPA-G, gross working capital cycle stood at 115 days as of June 2025 (June 2024: 69 days). Net working capital days were recorded at 22 days in June 2025, compared to negative 13 days in June 2024. The Company is managing its working capital requirements through a mix of internal cash generation and short-term banking facilities, while future financing remains dependent on the payment behavior of the power purchaser against outstanding receivables.


Cash Flow Analysis

During FY25, the Company reported FCFO of PKR 24,326 million from the sale of electricity to CPPA-G, compared to PKR 25,602 million in FY24. EBITDA/Finance Cost improved from 2.0x in FY24 to 2.3x in FY25. The cash flow position is expected to strengthen with higher generation in the coming periods, as the plant is placed on priority in the merit order list, though this remains contingent on timely payments from CPPA-G.


Capitalization

As on June 2025, leveraging stood at 64.3% which is mainly attributable to long term project debt.


 
 

Oct-25

www.pacra.com


Jun-25
12M
Jun-24
12M
Jun-23
12M
A. BALANCE SHEET
1. Non-Current Assets 100,104 101,665 106,858
2. Investments 0 0 0
3. Related Party Exposure 94 528 0
4. Current Assets 52,776 49,535 33,331
a. Inventories 572 585 181
b. Trade Receivables 18,321 15,364 7,317
5. Total Assets 152,974 151,728 140,189
6. Current Liabilities 25,810 26,466 19,071
a. Trade Payables 12,150 15,877 11,869
7. Borrowings 81,422 88,555 93,223
8. Related Party Exposure 600 2,186 3,095
9. Non-Current Liabilities 0 0 0
10. Net Assets 45,141 34,520 24,801
11. Shareholders' Equity 45,141 34,520 24,801
B. INCOME STATEMENT
1. Sales 55,292 61,875 37,869
a. Cost of Good Sold (34,086) (39,142) (22,969)
2. Gross Profit 21,206 22,734 14,900
a. Operating Expenses (224) (220) (228)
3. Operating Profit 20,983 22,513 14,672
a. Non Operating Income or (Expense) 1,200 818 (960)
4. Profit or (Loss) before Interest and Tax 22,182 23,332 13,711
a. Total Finance Cost (10,970) (13,310) (7,848)
b. Taxation (585) (286) (67)
6. Net Income Or (Loss) 10,627 9,736 5,797
C. CASH FLOW STATEMENT
a. Free Cash Flows from Operations (FCFO) 24,326 25,602 15,704
b. Net Cash from Operating Activities before Working Capital Changes 12,867 13,733 9,433
c. Changes in Working Capital 6,053 1,293 (11,757)
1. Net Cash provided by Operating Activities 18,920 15,026 (2,324)
2. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Investing Activities (428) (1,342) (14,072)
3. Net Cash (Used in) or Available From Financing Activities (8,875) (845) 18,158
4. Net Cash generated or (Used) during the period 9,618 12,839 1,762
D. RATIO ANALYSIS
1. Performance
a. Sales Growth (for the period) -10.6% 63.4% N/A
b. Gross Profit Margin 38.4% 36.7% 39.3%
c. Net Profit Margin 19.2% 15.7% 15.3%
d. Cash Conversion Efficiency (FCFO adjusted for Working Capital/Sales) 54.9% 43.5% 10.4%
e. Return on Equity [ Net Profit Margin * Asset Turnover * (Total Assets/Shareholders' Equity )] 23.6% 29.3% 30.2%
2. Working Capital Management
a. Gross Working Capital (Average Days) 115 69 72
b. Net Working Capital (Average Days) 22 -13 12
c. Current Ratio (Current Assets / Current Liabilities) 2.0 1.9 1.7
3. Coverages
a. EBITDA / Finance Cost 2.3 2.0 2.2
b. FCFO / Finance Cost+CMLTB+Excess STB 1.5 1.4 1.0
c. Debt Payback (Total Borrowings+Excess STB) / (FCFO-Finance Cost) 5.5 6.3 10.8
4. Capital Structure
a. Total Borrowings / (Total Borrowings+Shareholders' Equity) 64.3% 72.0% 79.0%
b. Interest or Markup Payable (Days) 135.9 152.0 234.0
c. Entity Average Borrowing Rate 12.0% 13.7% 10.0%

Oct-25

www.pacra.com

Oct-25

www.pacra.com

  1. Rating Team Statements
    1. Rating is just an opinion about the creditworthiness of the entity and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security of the entity rated or to buy, hold, or sell the security rated, as the case may be. (Chapter III; 14-3-(x))
    2. Conflict of Interest
      1. The Rating Team or any of their family members have no interest in this rating (Chapter III; 12-2-(j))
      2. PACRA, the analysts involved in the rating process, and members of its rating committee and their family members do not have any conflict of interest relating to the rating done by them (Chapter III; 12-2-(e) & (k))
      3. The analyst is not a substantial shareholder of the customer being rated by PACRA [Annexure F; d-(ii)]
      4. Explanation: for the purpose of the above clause, the term "family members" shall include only those family members who are dependent on the analyst and members of the rating committee.
  2. Restrictions
    1. No director, officer, or employee of PACRA communicates the information acquired by him for use for rating purposes to any other person, except where required under law to do so. (Chapter III; 10-(5))
    2. PACRA does not disclose or discuss with outside parties or make improper use of the non-public information which has come to its knowledge during a business relationship with the customer. (Chapter III; 10-7-(d))
    3. PACRA does not make proposals or recommendations regarding the activities of rated entities that could impact a credit rating of the entity subject to rating. (Chapter III; 10-7-(k))
  3. Conduct of Business
    1. PACRA fulfills its obligations in a fair, efficient, transparent, and ethical manner and renders high standards of services in performing its functions and obligations. (Chapter III; 11-A-(a))
    2. PACRA uses due care in the preparation of this Rating Report. Our information has been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. PACRA does not, in every instance, independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing this Rating Report. (Clause 11-(A)(p))
    3. PACRA prohibits its employees and analysts from soliciting money, gifts, or favors from anyone with whom PACRA conducts business. (Chapter III; 11-A-(q))
    4. PACRA ensures before the commencement of the rating process that an analyst or employee has not had a recent employment or other significant business or personal relationship with the rated entity that may cause or may be perceived as causing a conflict of interest. (Chapter III; 11-A-(r))
    5. PACRA maintains the principle of integrity in seeking rating business. (Chapter III; 11-A-(u))
    6. PACRA promptly investigates in the event of misconduct or a breach of the policies, procedures, and controls, and takes appropriate steps to rectify any weaknesses to prevent any recurrence, along with suitable punitive action against the responsible employee(s). (Chapter III; 11-B-(m))
  4. Independence & Conflict of Interest
    1. PACRA receives compensation from the entity being rated or any third party for the rating services it offers. The receipt of this compensation has no influence on PACRA’s opinions or other analytical processes. In all instances, PACRA is committed to preserving the objectivity, integrity, and independence of its ratings. Our relationship is governed by two distinct mandates: i) rating mandate - signed with the entity being rated or issuer of the debt instrument, and ii) fee mandate - signed with the payer, which can be different from the entity.
    2. PACRA does not provide consultancy/advisory services or other services to any of its customers or their associated companies and associated undertakings that are being rated or have been rated by it during the preceding three years, unless it has an adequate mechanism in place ensuring that the provision of such services does not lead to a conflict of interest situation with its rating activities. (Chapter III; 12-2-(d))
    3. PACRA discloses that no shareholder directly or indirectly holding 10% or more of the share capital of PACRA also holds directly or indirectly 10% or more of the share capital of the entity which is subject to rating or the entity which issued the instrument subject to rating by PACRA. (Chapter III; 12-2-(f))
    4. PACRA ensures that the rating assigned to an entity or instrument is not affected by the existence of a business relationship between PACRA and the entity or any other party, or the non-existence of such a relationship. (Chapter III; 12-2-(i))
    5. PACRA ensures that the analysts or any of their family members shall not buy, sell, or engage in any transaction in any security which falls in the analyst’s area of primary analytical responsibility. This clause, however, does not apply to investments in securities through collective investment schemes. (Chapter III; 12-2-(l))
    6. PACRA has established policies and procedures governing investments and trading in securities by its employees and for monitoring the same to prevent insider trading, market manipulation, or any other market abuse. (Chapter III; 11-B-(g))
  5. Monitoring and Review
    1. PACRA monitors all the outstanding ratings continuously, and any potential change therein due to any event associated with the issuer, the security arrangement, the industry, etc., is disseminated to the market immediately and in an effective manner after appropriate consultation with the entity/issuer. (Chapter III; 17-(a))
    2. PACRA reviews all the outstanding ratings periodically on an annual basis. Provided that public dissemination of annual review and in an instance of change in rating will be made. (Chapter III; 17-(b))
    3. PACRA initiates an immediate review of the outstanding rating upon becoming aware of any information that may reasonably be expected to result in downgrading of the rating. (Chapter III; 17-(c))
    4. PACRA engages with the issuer and the debt securities trustee to remain updated on all information pertaining to the rating of the entity/instrument. (Chapter III; 17-(d))
  6. Probability of Default
    1. PACRA’s Rating Scale reflects the expectation of credit risk. The highest rating has the lowest relative likelihood of default (i.e., probability). PACRA’s transition studies capture the historical performance behavior of a specific rating notch. Transition behavior of the assigned rating can be obtained from PACRA’s Transition Study available at our website. (www.pacra.com) However, the actual transition of rating may not follow the pattern observed in the past. (Chapter III; 14-3(f)(vii))
  7. Proprietary Information
    1. All information contained herein is considered proprietary by PACRA. Hence, none of the information in this document can be copied or otherwise reproduced, stored, or disseminated in whole or in part in any form or by any means whatsoever by any person without PACRA’s prior written consent.

Oct-25

www.pacra.com